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Senators at Lightning
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸7
Tampa Bay Lightning
4
FinalTV SUN, TSN5·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-4. The Lightning scored first; the Senators answered. The Senators led 6-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Marian Gaborik's goal at 7:18 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 66% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.2 to 1.9; shots on goal were OTT 33, TBL 46. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Mike Condon stopped 42 of 46 (.913), 0.8 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 29 (.793), 4.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mike Hoffman (2 G), 2. J.T. Miller (3 G), 3. Ryan Dzingel (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    M. Hoffman2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    J. Miller3 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    R. Dzingel1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT31731214733
TBLTBL11722118446

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    J. Miller(16)
    N. Kucherov (55), S. Stamkos (53)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +3 pts
    0-1
    4:19
  2. OTT
    M. Paajarvi(7)
    T. Pyatt (13), J. Pageau (13)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +9 pts
    1-1
    7:47
  3. OTT
    R. Dzingel(20)PPG
    M. Gaborik (9), C. Ceci (12)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    2-1
    10:47
  4. OTT
    T. Pyatt(7)
    C. Ceci (13), M. Borowiecki (7)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    11:24

2nd period

  1. TBL
    J. Miller(17)PPG
    N. Kucherov (56), V. Hedman (39)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    3-2
    2:03
  2. OTT
    M. Gaborik(9)PPG
    R. Dzingel (12), A. Burrows (7)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    4-2
    7:18
  3. OTT
    M. Hoffman(20)
    E. Burgdoerfer (1), M. Duchene (25)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +10 pts
    5-2
    13:44
  4. TBL
    J. Miller(18)PPG
    S. Stamkos (54), V. Hedman (40)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +9 pts
    5-3
    16:26
  5. OTT
    E. Karlsson(8)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +8 pts
    6-3
    18:30

3rd period

  1. OTT
    M. Hoffman(21)
    E. Karlsson (46), M. Duchene (26)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +2 pts
    7-3
    3:46
  2. TBL
    R. McDonagh(3)
    S. Stamkos (55), N. Kucherov (57)
    wristxG 0.11
    7-4
    12:44

Penalties

OTT 13 PIM·TBL 9 PIM

1st

  • 4:03TBLAdam Erne · Fightingdrawn by Max McCormick5 min
  • 4:03OTTMax McCormick · Fightingdrawn by Adam Erne5 min
  • 8:53TBLAnthony Cirelli · Hookingdrawn by Jim O'Brien2 min
  • 18:24OTTAlexandre Burrows · Interferencedrawn by J.T. Miller2 min

2nd

  • 0:39OTTMagnus Paajarvi · Trippingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 5:35TBLBraydon Coburn · Interferencedrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 14:10OTTMarian Gaborik · Hookingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 15:28OTTZack Smith · Holdingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalOTT goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Marian Gaborik, 2nd 7:18 — OTT 66% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.22J. Miller · Goal · xG 0.17J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.15J. Miller · Goal · xG 0.15J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.12A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.11R. McDonagh · Goal · xG 0.11B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.10B. Point · On goal · xG 0.10Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.10J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.10B. Point · On goal · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.09J. Miller · Goal · xG 0.08Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.07J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.06T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.06A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.06R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.05Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.05R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.05C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.04T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.03J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.03B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.03T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.03J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.03B. Point · Missed · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.02C. Kunitz · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.01A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.01T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 3.2 xG · 60 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTBL
1.97 G
All situations
4 G3.2
1.75 G
Even strength
2 G2.7
0.22 G
Power play
2 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT26%74%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.80 – 3.22

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTBL
33
Shots on goal
46
44%
Faceoffs
56%
2/2
Power play
2/4
13
Penalty minutes
9
19
Hits
17
16
Blocked shots
9
6
Giveaways
7
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
65E. KarlssonD112+120.04100—23:17
5C. CeciD022+110.01130—21:18
74M. BorowieckiD011+200.06560—20:16
44J. PageauC011+210.041105720:15
67B. HarpurD000020.01110—20:13
68M. HoffmanC202+140.48110019:28
95M. DucheneC022+140.200004019:05
18R. DzingelC112+120.12100017:11
46E. BurgdoerferD011+220.06200—16:27
72T. ChabotD000010.02010—16:00
9B. RyanR000+120.07000—15:41
14A. BurrowsR011+100.00112—15:41
56M. PaajarviL101+120.18012—14:59
15Z. SmithC000030.153023214:05
10T. PyattL112+130.25000—12:37
12M. GaborikR112010.09002—10:49
40J. O'BrienC000020.040005608:14
89M. McCormickL000010.022155008:02
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1M. Condon(W)46424.9133.23-0.7760:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).