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Lightning at Senators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Ottawa Senators
3
FinalTV SUN, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Ottawa Senators 4-3. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Vladislav Namestnikov's goal at 3:37 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 63% to 80%. Expected goals were close — TBL 3.0, OTT 2.7; shots on goal were TBL 24, OTT 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Louis Domingue stopped 33 of 36 (.917); Craig Anderson stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Vladislav Namestnikov (1 G, 1 A), 2. Yanni Gourde (2 A), 3. Mark Borowiecki (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    V. Namestnikov1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    Y. Gourde2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Borowiecki1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL2721106424
OTTOTT113011212336

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    T. Johnson(17)
    C. Kunitz (10), Y. Gourde (24)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:31
  2. OTT
    R. Dzingel(16)
    M. Stone (34), D. Brassard (20)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    14:54
  3. TBL
    V. Hedman(9)
    N. Kucherov (47), V. Namestnikov (24)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    16:26

2nd period

  1. TBL
    V. Namestnikov(20)
    N. Kucherov (48), S. Stamkos (45)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    3:37
  2. TBL
    B. Point(24)
    Y. Gourde (25), A. Killorn (25)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +8 pts
    4-1
    19:59

3rd period

  1. OTT
    M. Borowiecki(3)
    B. Ryan (14), C. Ceci (11)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +5 pts
    4-2
    8:11
  2. OTT
    D. Brassard(18)PPG
    M. Stone (35), E. Karlsson (37)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +6 pts
    4-3
    17:44

Penalties

TBL 10 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 1:25OTTMark Borowiecki · High stickingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

2nd

  • 4:11TBLSlater Koekkoek · Holdingdrawn by Derick Brassard2 min
  • 7:45TBLSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Mike Hoffman2 min
  • 10:33OTTMark Borowiecki · High stickingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

3rd

  • 4:19TBLTyler Johnson · Hookingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min
  • 8:58OTTErik Karlsson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:07TBLYanni Gourde · Hookingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 15:47TBLJake Dotchin · Trippingdrawn by Zack Smith2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTBL goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Vladislav Namestnikov, 2nd 3:37 — TBL 63% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.24R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.17Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.15M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.14J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.13B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.13R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.13D. Brassard · Goal · xG 0.11T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.11R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.10R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.10M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.10M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.09M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.08D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.07M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.07T. Pyatt · Missed · xG 0.06M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.05M. Gaborik · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.05M. Borowiecki · Goal · xG 0.05M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.04M. Gaborik · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dzingel · Goal · xG 0.04M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.04M. Gaborik · Missed · xG 0.04Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03M. Gaborik · On goal · xG 0.03C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.03T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.02M. Gaborik · On goal · xG 0.02B. Harpur · On goal · xG 0.02N. Shore · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oduya · On goal · xG 0.02B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.01M. Gaborik · Missed · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oduya · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oduya · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01M. Gaborik · On goal · xG 0.01B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 2.7 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsOTT
3.04 G
All situations
3 G2.7
2.14 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.10 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.40 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL47%53%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.54 – 2.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsOTT
24
Shots on goal
36
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/3
Power play
1/5
10
Penalty minutes
6
21
Hits
27
28
Blocked shots
14
10
Giveaways
9
3
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD101+330.27370—26:38
6A. StralmanD000+300.02010—24:19
17A. KillornL011000.01220—21:23
21B. PointC101+130.541103320:50
86N. KucherovR022+120.41000—19:43
91S. StamkosC011+120.181126018:10
5D. GirardiD000020.02130—17:20
37Y. GourdeC022+200.391224016:33
9T. JohnsonC101+110.101125815:34
24R. CallahanR000010.12200—15:19
98M. SergachevD000030.07030—15:06
14C. KunitzL011+100.00000—15:05
90V. NamestnikovC112+130.511002514:49
55B. CoburnD000-200.00010—13:35
13C. PaquetteC000-110.131306710:53
59J. DotchinD000-110.11212—09:13
29S. KoekkoekD000+100.00222—07:49
73A. ErneL000-120.07300—07:44
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70L. Domingue(W)36333.9172.75-0.2560:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).