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Senators at Panthers
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸5
Florida Panthers
3
FinalTV FS-F, TSN5·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Florida Panthers 5-3. The Senators scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matt Duchene's goal at 17:00 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 48% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 2.7 to 1.7; shots on goal were OTT 25, FLA 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 35 of 38 (.921); Roberto Luongo stopped 20 of 25 (.800), 3.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Duchene (2 G), 2. Vincent Trocheck (2 A), 3. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    M. Duchene2 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    V. Trocheck2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    J. Pageau1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT21202311525
FLAFLA08217113338

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    M. Duchene(20)
    M. Hoffman (27), E. Karlsson (44)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    0:57
  2. OTT
    M. Paajarvi(5)
    F. Claesson (6), T. Pyatt (12)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    15:16

2nd period

  1. FLA
    E. Dadonov(22)
    N. Bjugstad (25), A. Barkov (44)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    12:36
  2. FLA
    M. Matheson(10)
    V. Trocheck (37), J. Huberdeau (40)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +22 pts
    2-2
    17:28

3rd period

  1. OTT
    M. Paajarvi(6)
    T. Chabot (13)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +25 pts
    3-2
    0:43
  2. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(23)
    V. Trocheck (38), M. Weegar (5)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +27 pts
    3-3
    4:23
  3. OTT
    M. Duchene(21)
    M. Hoffman (28)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +42 pts
    4-3
    17:00
  4. OTT
    J. Pageau(12)
    E. Karlsson (45), A. Burrows (6)
    tip-inxG 0.03win prob +7 pts
    5-3
    18:15

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·FLA 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:43OTTMark Borowiecki · Kneeingdrawn by Vincent Trocheck2 min
  • 17:46FLAJared McCann · Interferencedrawn by Zack Smith2 min

3rd

  • 12:47FLAJamie McGinn · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 13:08FLAKeith Yandle · Roughingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 13:08OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau · Roughingdrawn by Keith Yandle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalOTT goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Matt Duchene, 3rd 17:00 — OTT 48% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.23J. McGinn · Missed · xG 0.14A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.13F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.12N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.12N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.11V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.11F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.11A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.09J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.09E. Dadonov · Goal · xG 0.08J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.07J. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.07F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.06M. Haley · Missed · xG 0.06V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.06F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.06J. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.06J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.06M. Matheson · Missed · xG 0.05M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.04N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.04C. Sceviour · Missed · xG 0.04M. Matheson · Missed · xG 0.04M. Matheson · Goal · xG 0.04J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.03N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.03J. McCann · Missed · xG 0.03V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.03J. McGinn · Missed · xG 0.03F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.03F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.03A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.03N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.02D. MacKenzie · Missed · xG 0.02K. Yandle · Missed · xG 0.02J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.02J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.02N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.02V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.02J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.02F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.01K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.01A. Petrovic · On goal · xG 0.01K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.01K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.01F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.01K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.01M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sceviour · On goal · xG 0.01K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.00C. Sceviour · On goal · xG 0.00A. Petrovic · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA3 G · 2.7 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsFLA
1.75 G
All situations
3 G2.7
1.35 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT30%70%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.65 – 2.74

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsFLA
25
Shots on goal
38
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/2
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
6
21
Hits
21
18
Blocked shots
8
11
Giveaways
27
11
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
65E. KarlssonD022+230.09000—26:13
5C. CeciD000+120.07420—23:47
67B. HarpurD000010.00220—22:28
95M. DucheneC202+140.381004719:16
72T. ChabotD011+100.00300—18:54
68M. HoffmanC022+110.12010018:32
9B. RyanR000020.26030—18:16
15Z. SmithC000010.031004717:20
18R. DzingelC000+220.03000016:59
44J. PageauC101+120.051225915:42
56M. PaajarviL202+120.24000—15:40
74M. BorowieckiD000+100.02312—15:16
10T. PyattL011+220.15100—13:44
14A. BurrowsR011+100.03020—13:19
12M. GaborikR000-310.08010—13:13
33F. ClaessonD011-100.00320—11:28
40J. O'BrienC000000.000204309:30
89M. McCormickL000020.1120010008:23
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(W)38353.9212.75-0.2560:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).