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Avalanche at Flames
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
1
Calgary Flames
▸5
FinalTV ALT, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-1. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 16:24 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 18% to 32%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.3 to 1.8; shots on goal were COL 29, CGY 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 2.7 goals below expected; Jon Gillies stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mikael Backlund (1 G, 2 A), 2. Michael Frolik (1 G), 3. Matthew Tkachuk (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    M. Backlund1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    M. Frolik1 G
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Tkachuk2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL11501004129
CGYCGY28110211529

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    M. Frolik(9)
    M. Backlund (26)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:18
  2. CGY
    M. Giordano(10)
    M. Backlund (27), M. Tkachuk (22)
    slapxG 0.20win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    7:24
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(26)
    T. Barrie (31), D. Siemens (1)
    wristxG 0.00win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    16:24

2nd period

  1. CGY
    S. Monahan(29)PPG
    M. Stone (3), M. Tkachuk (23)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    1-3
    10:50

3rd period

  1. CGY
    T. Brouwer(4)
    M. Stajan (5), T. Brodie (24)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +6 pts
    1-4
    2:39
  2. CGY
    M. Backlund(11)PPG
    T. Brouwer (13), T. Brodie (25)
    wristxG 0.06
    1-5
    14:46

Penalties

COL 20 PIM·CGY 16 PIM

2nd

  • 6:14CGYBrett Kulak · Hookingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 9:16COLNikita Zadorov · Trippingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
  • 16:51COLNikita Zadorov · Cross checkingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min
  • 16:51COLNikita Zadorov · Roughingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min
  • 16:51CGYGarnet Hathaway · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min

3rd

  • 13:30COLDuncan Siemens · Slashingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
  • 16:13CGYGarnet Hathaway · Misconductdrawn by Duncan Siemens10 min
  • 16:13COLDuncan Siemens · Roughingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min
  • 16:13CGYAndrew Mangiapane · Roughingdrawn by Duncan Siemens2 min
  • 16:13COLDuncan Siemens · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalCOL goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 1st 16:24 — COL 18% → 32%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Giordano · Goal · xG 0.20S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.15M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.11M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.10J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.09M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.09G. Hathaway · On goal · xG 0.09S. Monahan · Goal · xG 0.08S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.07M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.07M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.07M. Backlund · Goal · xG 0.06S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06M. Frolik · Missed · xG 0.06A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.05J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.05S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.05J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.04C. Lazar · On goal · xG 0.04T. Brouwer · Goal · xG 0.04S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.04M. Frolik · Goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.04D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.03T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.03S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.03M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.02A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.02S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02M. Frolik · Missed · xG 0.01M. Frolik · Missed · xG 0.01M. Frolik · Missed · xG 0.01M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.01M. Stajan · On goal · xG 0.01B. Kulak · Missed · xG 0.01B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.01M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.00T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.00T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY5 G · 2.3 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsCGY
1.81 G
All situations
5 G2.3
1.11 G
Even strength
3 G1.7
0.70 G
Power play
2 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL41%59%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.81 – 2.25

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsCGY
29
Shots on goal
29
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/1
Power play
2/3
20
Penalty minutes
16
16
Hits
15
21
Blocked shots
13
11
Giveaways
12
3
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4T. BarrieD011-140.20000—25:59
12P. NemethD000020.06080—24:52
49S. GirardD000-130.09010—23:47
14B. ComeauL000010.01000—18:54
5D. WarsofskyD000020.03020—18:19
34C. SoderbergC000000.162105417:55
83M. NietoL000020.18030—17:05
29N. MacKinnonC101-140.200004717:03
96M. RantanenR000-100.00100—16:57
15D. SiemensD011020.101314—16:56
92G. LandeskogL000-110.103006715:52
13A. KerfootC000-120.170105515:00
17T. JostC000020.1900010013:49
22C. WilsonC000-110.14000013:47
57G. BourqueL000-110.03510—10:43
47D. ToninatoC000000.001005010:40
37J. CompherL000010.150105010:04
16N. ZadorovD000-210.03306—07:45
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1S. Varlamov(L)29245.8282.26-2.7459:43

Season series

CGY leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).