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Senators at Predators
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
2
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV FS-TN, TSN5·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Ottawa Senators 5-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Viktor Arvidsson's goal at 10:00 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 71% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.9 to 2.7; shots on goal were OTT 38, NSH 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 36 of 41 (.878), 1.1 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Viktor Arvidsson (2 G), 2. Ryan Ellis (1 G, 1 A), 3. Filip Forsberg (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    V. Arvidsson2 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. Ellis1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11411509238
NSHNSH29215117541

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(10)PPG
    R. Ellis (7), K. Turris (23)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    9:28
  2. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(19)
    R. Johansen (30), F. Forsberg (23)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    14:32
  3. OTT
    J. Pageau(8)PPG
    M. Stone (31), E. Karlsson (36)
    wristxG 0.46win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    16:03

2nd period

  1. NSH
    R. Ellis(4)PPG
    R. Josi (24), K. Fiala (19)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
    1-3
    6:34
  2. OTT
    M. McCormick(2)
    F. Claesson (3), N. Shore (12)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    8:05
  3. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(20)
    F. Forsberg (24)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    10:00

3rd period

  1. NSH
    C. Smith(18)
    K. Fiala (20)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +4 pts
    2-5
    8:15

Penalties

OTT 10 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:45OTTThomas Chabot · Slashingdrawn by Colton Sissons2 min
  • 11:14OTTMark Stone · Interferencedrawn by Miikka Salomaki2 min
  • 15:41NSHColton Sissons · Interferencedrawn by Mark Borowiecki2 min

2nd

  • 6:18OTTZack Smith · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Turris2 min
  • 15:43NSHMiikka Salomaki · Roughingdrawn by Zack Smith2 min
  • 16:18OTTMark Stone · Holding the stickdrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min

3rd

  • 0:20NSHP.K. Subban · Hookingdrawn by Zack Smith2 min
  • 17:08OTTFredrik Claesson · Slashingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalOTT goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Viktor Arvidsson, 2nd 10:00 — NSH 71% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.34V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.26V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.21K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.20V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.20F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.19V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.14S. Hartnell · Missed · xG 0.13V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.12K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.11C. Smith · Goal · xG 0.11R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.10R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.10V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.09R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.09V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.08R. Ellis · Goal · xG 0.08R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.07N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.07V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.07V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.06A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.06A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.06K. Turris · Missed · xG 0.06A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.06R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.06R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.05A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.05P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.05R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.03A. Emelin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.03N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.02A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02A. Emelin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.02K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.02A. Emelin · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.02K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.02A. Emelin · Missed · xG 0.01A. Emelin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.00C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.00N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 3.9 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsNSH
2.72 G
All situations
5 G3.9
1.91 G
Even strength
3 G3.2
0.81 G
Power play
2 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT31%69%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.69 – 3.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsNSH
38
Shots on goal
41
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/3
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
6
13
Hits
15
19
Blocked shots
13
7
Giveaways
16
6
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5C. CeciD000-140.34210—23:38
65E. KarlssonD011-220.06000—23:10
72T. ChabotD000-120.27012—20:52
15Z. SmithC000-100.000225019:10
61M. StoneR011-120.22014—18:26
95M. DucheneC000-210.101104117:54
29J. OduyaD000-130.07020—17:46
74M. BorowieckiD000030.09120—17:46
19D. BrassardC000-180.450005817:29
68M. HoffmanC000-220.030106717:00
44J. PageauC101020.462102816:25
12M. GaborikR000-200.14000—15:23
33F. ClaessonD011+120.04402—15:10
10T. PyattL000010.06040—14:53
56M. PaajarviL000030.14030—14:46
40G. DumontC000+110.12200007:33
23N. ShoreC011+110.090007107:32
89M. McCormickL101+110.02100—07:12
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)41365.8783.87-1.1359:56

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).