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Predators at Senators
NHL

Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
3
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Final/OTTV FS-TN, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Nashville Predators 4-3 in overtime, Mike Hoffman scoring at 3:01. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Senators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mike Hoffman's goal at 3:01 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were NSH 38, OTT 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 1.2 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 35 of 38 (.921), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mike Hoffman (1 G), 2. P.K. Subban (2 G), 3. Christopher DiDomenico (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    M. Hoffman1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    P. Subban2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. DiDomenico1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NSHNSH2100412103338
OTTOTT182170714436

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    P. Subban(14)
    Unassisted
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    0:34
  2. OTT
    C. DiDomenico(6)
    R. Dzingel (10), Z. Smith (10)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +5 pts
    1-1
    8:00
  3. NSH
    C. Jarnkrok(13)
    N. Bonino (8), S. Hartnell (7)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    18:05

2nd period

  1. OTT
    M. McCormick(1)
    R. Dzingel (11), M. Borowiecki (2)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    4:08
  2. OTT
    M. Paajarvi(3)
    E. Karlsson (31)
    backhandxG 0.39win prob +19 pts
    2-3
    11:59

3rd period

  1. NSH
    P. Subban(15)
    S. Hartnell (8), R. Josi (22)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +38 pts
    3-3
    15:42

Overtime

  1. OTT
    M. Hoffman(15)
    T. Chabot (8), M. Duchene (18)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    3:01

Penalties

NSH 9 PIM·OTT 9 PIM

1st

  • 7:26OTTDion Phaneuf · Fightingdrawn by Scott Hartnell5 min
  • 7:26NSHScott Hartnell · Fightingdrawn by Dion Phaneuf5 min
  • 12:09OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau · Slashingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min
  • 18:22NSHColton Sissons · Holdingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

2nd

  • 7:20NSHKyle Turris · Holdingdrawn by Zack Smith2 min

3rd

  • 7:09OTTColin White · Trippingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalNSH goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Mike Hoffman, OT 3:01 — OTT 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Paajarvi · Goal · xG 0.39M. Hoffman · Goal · xG 0.24M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.20E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.19C. DiDomenico · Goal · xG 0.18R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.14T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.13M. McCormick · Goal · xG 0.11M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.08R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.08T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.08C. White · On goal · xG 0.07M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.07M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.07M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.06C. DiDomenico · Missed · xG 0.06J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.05E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.04M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04D. Phaneuf · On goal · xG 0.04M. Blunden · On goal · xG 0.04T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.03M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.03M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.02T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.02C. DiDomenico · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oduya · Missed · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oduya · On goal · xG 0.00M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.00M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 2.8 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsOTT
2.53 G
All situations
4 G2.8
2.33 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH44%56%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.49 – 2.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsOTT
38
Shots on goal
36
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/2
Power play
0/2
9
Penalty minutes
9
28
Hits
28
11
Blocked shots
17
7
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD011-160.21210—25:52
4R. EllisD000-150.13020—23:12
14M. EkholmD000020.02000—23:05
76P. SubbanD202+240.34310—22:36
92R. JohansenC000-110.071006019:36
19C. JarnkrokC101+130.4820010018:40
15C. SmithC000-370.7010010018:18
33V. ArvidssonL000010.00030—17:47
13N. BoninoC011+120.041004017:25
10C. SissonsC000-100.004024315:55
8K. TurrisC000020.180026714:41
22K. FialaL000-110.08010—14:30
7Y. WeberD000-100.09100—14:09
25A. EmelinD000000.03210—14:07
17S. HartnellL022+220.08215—12:22
51A. WatsonL000+110.03600—12:18
46P. AbergL000010.00100—11:04
20M. SalomakiR000-100.022105009:26
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(O)36324.8892.83-1.1763:01

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).