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Sabres at Rangers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
New York Rangers
▸4
FinalTV NBCSN, MSG·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Rangers beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3. The Rangers scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Pavel Buchnevich's goal at 16:02 of the third period, which took the Rangers' chances from 52% to 91%. Expected goals were close — BUF 3.1, NYR 3.2; shots on goal were BUF 37, NYR 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Robin Lehner stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.3 goals below expected; Henrik Lundqvist stopped 34 of 37 (.919). Three stars: 1. Rick Nash (2 G, 1 A), 2. Pavel Buchnevich (1 G, 1 A), 3. Kyle Okposo (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYR
    R. Nash2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NYR
    P. Buchnevich1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    K. Okposo1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF111111115337
NYRNYR11217215434

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NYR
    R. Nash(12)
    P. Buchnevich (17)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    1:24
  2. BUF
    K. Okposo(8)PPG
    S. Reinhart (7), J. Eichel (24)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    18:41

2nd period

  1. NYR
    J. Miller(10)
    D. Desharnais (17)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    8:26
  2. BUF
    J. Falk(1)
    E. Rodrigues (4), S. Reinhart (8)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    17:10

3rd period

  1. NYR
    R. Nash(13)
    R. McDonagh (21), N. Holden (6)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +28 pts
    2-3
    6:49
  2. BUF
    R. Ristolainen(3)PPG
    K. Okposo (18), J. Eichel (25)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +30 pts
    3-3
    14:59
  3. NYR
    P. Buchnevich(12)
    M. Zibanejad (12), R. Nash (10)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +39 pts
    3-4
    16:02

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·NYR 12 PIM

1st

  • 10:13BUFCasey Nelson · Cross checkingdrawn by Vinni Lettieri2 min
  • 17:49NYRBrendan Smith · Trippingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min

2nd

  • 6:08BUFCasey Nelson · Holdingdrawn by Vinni Lettieri2 min
  • 11:21NYRMats Zuccarello · High stickingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 14:56NYRKevin Shattenkirk · Cross checkingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 14:56BUFSam Reinhart · Embellishmentdrawn by Kevin Shattenkirk2 min
  • 16:52BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Roughingdrawn by Brendan Smith2 min
  • 16:52NYRBrendan Smith · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

3rd

  • 13:43NYRBrendan Smith · Delaying game puck over glassdrawn by Jordan Nolan2 min
  • 19:21NYRMats Zuccarello · Hookingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYR goalBUF goalFinal: NYR 100%

Biggest swing: Pavel Buchnevich, 3rd 16:02 — NYR 52% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Fast · Missed · xG 0.45P. Buchnevich · Goal · xG 0.25J. Fast · Missed · xG 0.18R. Nash · Goal · xG 0.17V. Lettieri · On goal · xG 0.16J. Miller · Goal · xG 0.15V. Lettieri · On goal · xG 0.13M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.13R. Nash · Missed · xG 0.12M. Zibanejad · Missed · xG 0.11R. Nash · Goal · xG 0.10B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.08J. Fast · On goal · xG 0.07M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.07N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.07R. Nash · Missed · xG 0.07P. Holland · Missed · xG 0.06J. Fast · On goal · xG 0.06J. Fast · Missed · xG 0.06V. Lettieri · Missed · xG 0.05M. Grabner · On goal · xG 0.05R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.05J. Fast · On goal · xG 0.04R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.04B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04M. Grabner · On goal · xG 0.03R. Nash · On goal · xG 0.03B. Smith · Missed · xG 0.03B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.03D. Desharnais · On goal · xG 0.03P. Carey · Missed · xG 0.03N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.02N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.02B. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02P. Holland · On goal · xG 0.01P. Carey · On goal · xG 0.01M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01P. Holland · On goal · xG 0.01M. Grabner · Missed · xG 0.01P. Holland · On goal · xG 0.00B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.00N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.00B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.00
NYR4 G · 3.2 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNYR
3.13 G
All situations
4 G3.2
1.71 G
Even strength
4 G2.3
1.22 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF55%45%NYR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.00 – 2.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNYR
37
Shots on goal
34
53%
Faceoffs
47%
2/4
Power play
0/2
8
Penalty minutes
12
30
Hits
22
14
Blocked shots
19
12
Giveaways
16
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD101-150.26402—26:18
6M. ScandellaD000-140.13130—23:48
19J. McCabeD000-200.00130—22:40
15J. EichelC022-260.623003621:18
21K. OkposoR112-210.24010—19:24
90R. O'ReillyC000-130.190006319:12
23S. ReinhartC022020.47102018:24
9E. KaneL000-170.22300—17:17
41J. FalkD101-110.03000—17:00
28Z. GirgensonsC000010.01400015:24
29J. PominvilleR000+110.01110—14:15
67B. PouliotL000-300.2400010014:06
71E. RodriguesC011+100.001005313:27
4J. GorgesD000-100.02230—13:07
8C. NelsonD000-110.02004—12:46
20S. WilsonC000010.05510010:21
22J. LarssonL000-130.261002909:21
17J. NolanC000010.30320007:38
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40R. Lehner(L)34304.8822.74-1.2658:03

Season series

NYR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).