Sharks at Panthers 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

San Jose Sharks

▸2

Florida Panthers

FinalTV FS-F, NBCSCA·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The San Jose Sharks beat the Florida Panthers 2-1. The Panthers scored first; the Sharks answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Chris Tierney's goal at 7:13 of the third period, which took the Sharks' chances from 48% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Sharks, 3.1 to 2.7; shots on goal were SJS 32, FLA 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sharks win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Aaron Dell stopped 39 of 40 (.975), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Roberto Luongo stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Chris Tierney (1 G), 2. Aaron Dell (39 saves, .975), 3. Roberto Luongo (30 saves, .938).

Three stars

★
C. Tierney1 G
★★
A. Dell39 saves, .975
★★★
R. Luongo30 saves, .938

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	09	112	111	232
FLA	112	010	018	140

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

C. Sceviour(5)
A. Petrovic (3), M. Haley (4)
slapxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
0-1
18:11

2nd period

J. Pavelski(5)
J. Thornton (12), T. Meier (3)
slapxG 0.13win prob +19 pts
1-1
11:20

3rd period

C. Tierney(7)
M. Karlsson (4), B. Burns (11)
backhandxG 0.03win prob +30 pts
2-1
7:13

Penalties

4 PIM·

0 PIM

2nd

5:12Melker Karlsson · Slashingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min

3rd

11:41Timo Meier · Boardingdrawn by Jared McCann2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: FLA

Biggest swing: Chris Tierney, 3rd 7:13 — SJS 48% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.7 xG · 54 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 3.1 xG · 53 att FLA

1 G · 2.7 xG · 54 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.12 G
All situations: 1 G2.7; 2.82 G
Even strength: 1 G1.7; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 107 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

52%48%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.76 – 2.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 40; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 0/0
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 0; 17
Hits: 17; 17
Blocked shots: 21; 11
Giveaways: 18; 6
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

San Jose Sharks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
88B. BurnsD	0	1	1	+1	3	0.13	0	3	0	—	25:48
4B. DillonD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.05	3	2	0	—	24:04
61J. BraunD	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	0	0	0	—	23:38
44M. VlasicD	0	0	0	0	4	0.22	0	1	0	—	23:01
48T. HertlC	0	0	0	0	3	0.79	1	3	0	59	20:29
39L. CoutureC	0	0	0	0	0	0.08	0	0	0	0	17:21
50C. TierneyC	1	0	1	0	2	0.08	1	2	0	55	16:39
19J. ThorntonC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.23	3	0	0	27	16:27
42J. WardR	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	0	2	0	50	16:26
8J. PavelskiC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.31	0	0	0	0	16:00
28T. MeierR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.23	1	0	2	—	15:10
36J. HansenR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	2	0	0	100	14:13
68M. KarlssonC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.19	2	2	2	0	12:33
74D. DeMeloD	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	2	1	0	—	12:13
47J. RyanD	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	0	1	0	—	11:16
40R. CarpenterC	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	0	0	0	50	10:40
89M. BoedkerL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.19	0	0	0	—	10:33
62K. LabancR	0	0	0	+1	2	0.10	2	0	0	—	09:29

San Jose Sharks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30A. Dell(W)	40	39	1	.975	2.67	+1.67	60:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Nov 162@0Final
Dec 12@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

San Jose Sharks at Florida Panthers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score