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Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers

Final/OTTV FS-A PLUS, SNOL·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Utah Mammoth 3-2 in overtime, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scoring at 4:20. The Coyotes scored first; the Oilers answered. The Coyotes led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's goal at 4:20 of overtime, which took the Oilers' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Coyotes, 4.4 to 3.0; shots on goal were ARI 31, EDM 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Coyotes win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 24 of 27 (.889); Cam Talbot stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 2.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Cam Talbot (29 saves, .935), 2. Scott Wedgewood (24 saves, .889), 3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    C. Talbot29 saves, .935
  2. ★★
    ARI
    S. Wedgewood24 saves, .889
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
ARIARI171110904231
EDMEDM160111911327

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. ARI
    C. Dvorak (12), M. Domi (12)
    wristxG 0.39win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    6:22
  2. EDM
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    16:30

2nd period

  1. ARI
    M. Domi (13), C. Keller (10)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +20 pts
    2-1
    19:11

3rd period

  1. EDM
    snapxG 0.03win prob +38 pts
    2-2
    14:25

Overtime

  1. EDM
    wristxG 0.20win prob +49 pts
    2-3
    4:20

Penalties

ARI 8 PIM·EDM 6 PIM

1st

  • 14:11ARIClayton Keller · Hookingdrawn by Adam Larsson2 min
  • 18:19EDMMatt Benning · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min

2nd

  • 8:00ARINick Cousins · Holdingdrawn by Yohann Auvitu2 min
  • 8:00EDMYohann Auvitu · Holdingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min
  • 14:47ARIJordan Martinook · Cross checkingdrawn by Ryan Strome2 min
  • 18:23EDMRyan Strome · Slashingdrawn by Luke Schenn2 min

3rd

  • 4:55ARIBrendan Perlini · High stickingdrawn by Oscar Klefbom2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalARI goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, OT 4:20 — EDM 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Nugent-Hopkins · Goal · xG 0.20P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.18M. Letestu · On goal · xG 0.15Z. Kassian · Missed · xG 0.14D. Caggiula · On goal · xG 0.13M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.13Z. Kassian · Goal · xG 0.13C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.13D. Caggiula · Missed · xG 0.11D. Caggiula · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.10M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.10A. Slepyshev · On goal · xG 0.10A. Slepyshev · Missed · xG 0.09D. Caggiula · Missed · xG 0.09P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.07M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.07R. Strome · Missed · xG 0.07R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.07K. Russell · On goal · xG 0.07L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.07M. Cammalleri · On goal · xG 0.06R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.06P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.05I. Pakarinen · On goal · xG 0.05A. Slepyshev · Missed · xG 0.04I. Pakarinen · Missed · xG 0.04L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.04R. Strome · Missed · xG 0.04O. Klefbom · Missed · xG 0.03M. Benning · Goal · xG 0.03M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.03D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.03M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.03M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Auvitu · On goal · xG 0.02I. Pakarinen · Missed · xG 0.02C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02M. Cammalleri · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Auvitu · On goal · xG 0.01C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.01O. Klefbom · On goal · xG 0.01A. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Auvitu · Missed · xG 0.01M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.01R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Auvitu · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM3 G · 3.0 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ARIvsEDM
4.42 G
All situations
3 G3.0
4.21 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ARI67%33%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.09 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ARIvsEDM
31
Shots on goal
27
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/2
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
15
Hits
24
25
Blocked shots
20
8
Giveaways
18
9
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23O. Ekman-LarssonD101-150.41110—25:57
33A. GoligoskiD000-110.07040—25:55
55J. DemersD000000.00000—23:29
21D. StepanC000-240.970006421:35
18C. DvorakC011+110.420005019:33
2L. SchennD000-100.00650—18:56
11B. PerliniL000020.34022—18:16
8T. RiederL000010.0001010017:39
16M. DomiC022-130.591005016:59
44K. ConnautonD000-130.18140—16:40
9C. KellerR011-230.38022—16:35
36C. FischerR101+120.50100—15:52
15B. RichardsonR000-110.180205315:51
48J. MartinookL000-120.10002—12:00
20D. StromeC000020.230003311:43
4N. HjalmarssonD000+100.00020—11:30
34Z. RinaldoC000010.03210009:30
25N. CousinsC000000.00312007:00
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31S. Wedgewood(O)27243.8893.01+0.0164:20

Season series

EDM leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).