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Flames at Stars
NHL

Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
4
Dallas Stars
▸6
FinalTV FS-SW, SNW (JIP)·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Calgary Flames 6-4. The lead changed hands 4 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Seguin's goal at 14:03 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 52% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.1 to 3.3; shots on goal were CGY 38, DAL 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 35 of 40 (.875), 1.6 goals below expected; Ben Bishop stopped 34 of 38 (.895), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tyler Seguin (3 G), 2. Johnny Gaudreau (1 G, 2 A), 3. Sean Monahan (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    T. Seguin3 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    J. Gaudreau1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    S. Monahan2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY012314112438
DALDAL113218310641

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    A. Roussel(3)
    T. Pitlick (4)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    18:22

2nd period

  1. CGY
    M. Ferland(9)
    S. Monahan (11)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    0:39
  2. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(11)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    2:53
  3. DAL
    T. Seguin(10)
    M. Janmark (7), J. Klingberg (17)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    2-2
    4:20
  4. CGY
    S. Monahan(13)PPG
    T. Brouwer (4), J. Gaudreau (22)
    snapxG 0.47win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    17:31
  5. DAL
    A. Radulov(8)
    D. Shore (9)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +23 pts
    3-3
    18:30

3rd period

  1. CGY
    S. Monahan(14)
    J. Gaudreau (23), M. Smith (1)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +28 pts
    4-3
    6:04
  2. DAL
    G. Smith(2)
    B. Ritchie (2)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +35 pts
    4-4
    12:12
  3. DAL
    T. Seguin(11)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.17win prob +36 pts
    4-5
    14:03
  4. DAL
    T. Seguin(12)EN
    A. Radulov (14)
    wristxG 0.72win prob +6 pts
    4-6
    19:00

Penalties

CGY 10 PIM·DAL 8 PIM

1st

  • 13:38DALJulius Honka · Slashingdrawn by Kris Versteeg2 min

2nd

  • 3:46CGYCurtis Lazar · High stickingdrawn by Esa Lindell2 min
  • 3:46DALEsa Lindell · High stickingdrawn by Curtis Lazar2 min
  • 5:14CGYMark Giordano · Hookingdrawn by Mattias Janmark2 min
  • 14:29CGYBrett Kulak · Holding the stickdrawn by Brett Ritchie2 min
  • 17:06DALAntoine Roussel · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Mike Smith2 min

3rd

  • 6:30CGYTJ Brodie · Holdingdrawn by Devin Shore2 min
  • 7:10CGYTravis Hamonic · Delaying game2 min
  • 15:44DALJamie Benn · Trippingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCGY goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Tyler Seguin, 3rd 14:03 — DAL 52% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.72J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.22J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.19T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.17A. Roussel · On goal · xG 0.16J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.16D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.14T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.14T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.13D. Hamhuis · Missed · xG 0.12T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.11T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.11G. Smith · Goal · xG 0.11J. Spezza · Missed · xG 0.10B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.10T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.10M. Hanzal · Missed · xG 0.09A. Radulov · Goal · xG 0.09D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.09A. Roussel · Goal · xG 0.09R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.08D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.08T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.07D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.07S. Johns · On goal · xG 0.06D. Hamhuis · On goal · xG 0.06M. Hanzal · On goal · xG 0.06T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.06T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.05A. Roussel · On goal · xG 0.05A. Roussel · On goal · xG 0.04J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.04D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.03T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Hanzal · On goal · xG 0.02M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.02G. Pateryn · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.02B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.02J. Honka · On goal · xG 0.02S. Johns · On goal · xG 0.02G. Pateryn · Missed · xG 0.02T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.01J. Honka · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamhuis · On goal · xG 0.00J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL6 G · 4.1 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsDAL
3.34 G
All situations
5 G4.1
2.43 G
Even strength
5 G2.3
0.91 G
Power play
0 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY49%51%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.24 – 3.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsDAL
38
Shots on goal
41
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/3
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
8
24
Hits
15
16
Blocked shots
14
8
Giveaways
11
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. GiordanoD000030.23312—23:31
7T. BrodieD000-220.03072—23:17
27D. HamiltonD000-210.2400010021:47
24T. HamonicD000-100.02102—21:12
23S. MonahanC213+120.711005420:07
13J. GaudreauL123+170.44100—18:24
11M. BacklundC000-330.120304717:38
67M. FrolikR000-420.37010—15:51
26M. StoneD000010.03120—15:16
79M. FerlandL101+210.1230010014:38
19M. TkachukL000-110.0520010014:21
61B. KulakD000-110.01102—13:38
68J. JagrR000050.27100—13:23
93S. BennettC000-140.4430010013:15
36T. BrouwerR011-120.05310—12:59
77M. JankowskiL000-110.101003312:37
10K. VersteegR000-120.080006709:54
20C. LazarC000-100.00312008:51
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41M. Smith(L)40355.8753.42-1.5859:21

Season series

DAL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).