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Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames

FinalTV FS-SW, SN360·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Calgary Flames 2-1. The Flames scored first; the Stars answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alexander Radulov's goal at 12:50 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 55% to 84%. Expected goals were close — DAL 1.9, CGY 1.8; shots on goal were DAL 24, CGY 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Kari Lehtonen stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Mike Smith stopped 22 of 24 (.917). Three stars: 1. Alexander Radulov (1 G), 2. Kari Lehtonen (29 saves, .967), 3. Mike Smith (22 saves, .917).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    A. Radulov1 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    K. Lehtonen29 saves, .967
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Smith22 saves, .917

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL081917224
CGYCGY01111108130

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

  1. CGY
    wristxG 0.06win prob +19 pts
    0-1
    10:18
  2. DAL
    snapxG 0.04win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    16:54

3rd period

  1. DAL
    wristxG 0.07win prob +29 pts
    2-1
    12:50

Penalties

DAL 6 PIM·CGY 8 PIM

1st

  • 17:56DALJamie Oleksiak · Slashingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

2nd

  • 6:32CGYMark Giordano · High stickingdrawn by Tyler Seguin2 min
  • 15:19CGYTravis Hamonic · Slashingdrawn by Antoine Roussel2 min

3rd

  • 6:34DALJason Spezza · Interferencedrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
  • 11:56CGYMatt Stajan · Slashingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min
  • 19:56CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Marc Methot2 min
  • 19:56DALMarc Methot · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalDAL goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Alexander Radulov, 3rd 12:50 — DAL 55% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.15T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.13M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.13M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.13T. Brouwer · On goal · xG 0.09M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.09M. Stajan · On goal · xG 0.09M. Stajan · Missed · xG 0.08T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.06S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.06J. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.06S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.05M. Stajan · On goal · xG 0.05M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.05T. Brouwer · On goal · xG 0.05D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.04S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.04M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.03K. Versteeg · On goal · xG 0.02M. Stajan · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.02M. Ferland · Missed · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.01M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.01T. Glass · Missed · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ferland · On goal · xG 0.01M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.01M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.01K. Versteeg · On goal · xG 0.01M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.01M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.00
CGY1 G · 1.8 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCGY
1.92 G
All situations
1 G1.8
1.50 G
Even strength
1 G1.3
0.42 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL54%46%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.94 – 1.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCGY
24
Shots on goal
30
43%
Faceoffs
57%
2/3
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
8
17
Hits
16
17
Blocked shots
13
3
Giveaways
7
7
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
29G. PaterynD000000.00010—21:32
23E. LindellD101010.04000—20:45
3J. KlingbergD011-120.18020—20:25
2D. HamhuisD000000.00010—20:06
14J. BennL000-130.411201319:00
33M. MethotD000-120.20112—18:53
91T. SeguinC000-110.171105518:42
47A. RadulovR101-120.09030—17:22
17D. ShoreC011020.18100016:12
13M. JanmarkC011010.011106716:11
12R. FaksaC000010.011205015:23
90J. SpezzaC011010.020124414:41
5J. OleksiakD000010.05102—13:53
18T. PitlickC000030.06200013:30
25B. RitchieR000000.08600—12:59
10M. HanzalC000010.171003312:48
21A. RousselL000020.121105011:58
46G. SmithC000010.16010011:36
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32K. Lehtonen(W)30291.9671.79+0.7960:00

Season series

DAL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).