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Avalanche at Red Wings
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
Detroit Red Wings
3
Final/OTTV FS-D, ALT·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-3 in overtime, Nathan MacKinnon scoring at 2:55. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Red Wings led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 2:55 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.2 to 1.6; shots on goal were COL 37, DET 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 1.4 goals below expected; Jimmy Howard stopped 33 of 37 (.892), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jimmy Howard (33 saves, .892), 3. Erik Johnson (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    J. Howard33 saves, .892
  3. ★★★
    COL
    E. Johnson1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL11201221112437
DETDET171711000324

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    J. Abdelkader(4)
    D. Larkin (16), X. Ouellet (2)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    14:01
  2. COL
    E. Johnson(1)
    T. Barrie (13), D. Toninato (1)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    19:44

2nd period

  1. DET
    A. Athanasiou(5)
    T. Tatar (4)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +23 pts
    1-2
    19:03

3rd period

  1. DET
    N. Kronwall(1)PPG
    G. Nyquist (4), J. Abdelkader (10)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    1-3
    11:07
  2. COL
    N. Yakupov(6)PPG
    C. Wilson (4), E. Johnson (7)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +8 pts
    2-3
    13:45
  3. COL
    C. Soderberg(3)
    N. MacKinnon (15), T. Barrie (14)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +44 pts
    3-3
    19:14

Overtime

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(7)
    G. Landeskog (7)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +51 pts
    4-3
    2:55

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·DET 12 PIM

1st

  • 15:21DETDanny DeKeyser · Hookingdrawn by Sven Andrighetto2 min

2nd

  • 7:22DETAnthony Mantha · Holdingdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min
  • 8:35DETFrans Nielsen · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 11:46DETMike Green · Roughingdrawn by Blake Comeau2 min
  • 14:03COLMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Luke Glendening2 min
  • 19:37COLMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Mike Green2 min

3rd

  • 2:43DETGustav Nyquist · High stickingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 9:18COLMikko Rantanen · Interferencedrawn by Trevor Daley2 min
  • 13:31DETJonathan Ericsson · High stickingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalCOL goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, OT 2:55 — COL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.11D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kronwall · On goal · xG 0.11F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.10A. Mantha · Missed · xG 0.07T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.07A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.07A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.06D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.06T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.06L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.06A. Athanasiou · Goal · xG 0.06H. Zetterberg · On goal · xG 0.06G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.06T. Tatar · Missed · xG 0.06H. Zetterberg · On goal · xG 0.05A. Mantha · Missed · xG 0.05N. Kronwall · Goal · xG 0.05G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.04F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.04A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.03H. Zetterberg · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.03T. Tatar · Missed · xG 0.02G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.02F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.02F. Nielsen · Missed · xG 0.02M. Green · Missed · xG 0.02M. Green · On goal · xG 0.02T. Daley · Missed · xG 0.01D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.01H. Zetterberg · On goal · xG 0.01J. Abdelkader · Goal · xG 0.01D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.01
DET3 G · 1.6 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDET
2.24 G
All situations
3 G1.6
1.43 G
Even strength
2 G0.8
0.81 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL61%39%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.16 – 1.60

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDET
37
Shots on goal
24
36%
Faceoffs
64%
1/6
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
12
25
Hits
18
11
Blocked shots
14
7
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6E. JohnsonD112+150.14120—30:48
49S. GirardD000030.18000—24:20
29N. MacKinnonC112+230.311003223:31
96M. RantanenR000+110.080065022:22
4T. BarrieD022+220.18200—22:09
92G. LandeskogL011+230.160203821:59
34C. SoderbergC101+230.162002016:52
14B. ComeauL000020.096003315:46
16N. ZadorovD000-110.13310—15:46
83M. NietoL000020.06310—14:34
13A. KerfootC000-110.091002514:32
37J. CompherL000-220.132205713:54
64N. YakupovR101030.11100—12:50
10S. AndrighettoR000030.24110—12:25
22C. WilsonC011-100.00000012:20
44M. BarberioD000-210.01020—10:33
47D. ToninatoC011+110.081006709:43
3C. BigrasD000010.02100—09:32
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(W)24213.8751.61-1.3961:55

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).