Skip to content
Sabres at Red Wings
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Detroit Red Wings
▸3
FinalTV FS-D+, MSG-B·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tomas Tatar's goal at 8:36 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.8 to 1.9; shots on goal were BUF 20, DET 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 80% of the time. Robin Lehner stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Jimmy Howard stopped 19 of 20 (.950), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Luke Glendening (1 G), 2. Robin Lehner (30 saves, .909), 3. Dylan Larkin (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    L. Glendening1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    R. Lehner30 saves, .909
  3. ★★★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF0604110120
DETDET08113212333

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. DET
    L. Glendening(5)
    D. Helm (5)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +23 pts
    0-1
    19:05

3rd period

  1. BUF
    R. O'Reilly(7)
    K. Okposo (6), V. Antipin (3)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +27 pts
    1-1
    5:50
  2. DET
    T. Tatar(5)
    J. Abdelkader (8), A. Athanasiou (3)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +30 pts
    1-2
    8:36
  3. DET
    D. Larkin(4)
    X. Ouellet (1), J. Abdelkader (9)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +9 pts
    1-3
    15:54

Penalties

BUF 10 PIM·DET 4 PIM

1st

  • 6:35BUFNathan Beaulieu · Slashingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
  • 13:30DETTrevor Daley · Trippingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min

2nd

  • 2:49BUFJordan Nolan · Boardingdrawn by Nick Jensen2 min
  • 4:23BUFEvander Kane · Cross checkingdrawn by Niklas Kronwall2 min
  • 8:36BUFSeth Griffith · Holdingdrawn by Scott Wilson2 min
  • 19:23DETDarren Helm · Interferencedrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

3rd

  • 3:04BUFJordan Nolan · Holdingdrawn by Andreas Athanasiou2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalBUF goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Tomas Tatar, 3rd 8:36 — DET 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.22G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.18L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.18A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.17G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.15L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.15J. Abdelkader · Missed · xG 0.14G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.13G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.13D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.13A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.13T. Tatar · Missed · xG 0.12T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.12A. Mantha · Missed · xG 0.12A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.11G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.11L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.10G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.10D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.10J. Abdelkader · Missed · xG 0.10A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.10D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.09D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.09A. Mantha · Missed · xG 0.08D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.07D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.07F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.07D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.06L. Glendening · Goal · xG 0.05F. Nielsen · Missed · xG 0.05D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04H. Zetterberg · On goal · xG 0.04M. Green · On goal · xG 0.04T. Tatar · Goal · xG 0.04N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.03N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.02G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.02D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.02T. Tatar · Missed · xG 0.02A. Mantha · Missed · xG 0.01D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.01N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.01X. Ouellet · On goal · xG 0.01T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.01X. Ouellet · Missed · xG 0.01J. Ericsson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.01H. Zetterberg · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kronwall · On goal · xG 0.01F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.00D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.00
DET3 G · 3.8 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsDET
1.91 G
All situations
3 G3.8
1.21 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
0.20 G
Power play
0 G1.5
0.50 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF20%80%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.87 – 3.74

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsDET
20
Shots on goal
33
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/2
Power play
0/5
10
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
12
6
Blocked shots
11
11
Giveaways
16
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6M. ScandellaD000+110.09010—24:02
90R. O'ReillyC101020.370008022:11
19J. McCabeD000-100.03110—20:56
9E. KaneL000-120.221023319:42
4J. GorgesD000-110.01230—19:19
93V. AntipinD011-110.02200—19:00
15J. EichelC000-110.020001718:45
67B. PouliotL000-100.21100—17:48
82N. BeaulieuD000-220.05012—17:44
21K. OkposoR011010.10000—17:33
41J. FalkD000010.00200—16:19
23S. ReinhartC000-110.0800010015:33
22J. LarssonL000-110.002003814:50
29J. PominvilleR000020.25100—11:12
28Z. GirgensonsC000010.01100011:03
25S. GriffithC000-110.09002010:24
51K. CriscuoloC000010.082006006:56
17J. NolanC000010.27004006:43
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40R. Lehner(L)33303.9093.77+0.7760:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).