Red Wings at Sabres 0-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Detroit Red Wings

Buffalo Sabres

▸1

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Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Detroit Red Wings 1-0. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Benoit Pouliot's goal at 9:45 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.9 to 2.1; shots on goal were DET 32, BUF 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Jimmy Howard stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Robin Lehner stopped 32 of 32 (1.000), 2.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Robin Lehner (32 saves, 1.000), 2. Benoit Pouliot (1 G), 3. Evander Kane.

Three stars

★
R. Lehner32 saves, 1.000
★★
B. Pouliot1 G
★★★
E. Kane

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	010	010	012	032
BUF	012	113	07	132

Scoring

1 goal

2nd period

B. Pouliot(2)
V. Antipin (1), T. Fedun (1)
wrap-aroundxG 0.06win prob +18 pts
0-1
9:45

Penalties

10 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

8:03Dylan Larkin · Slashingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

2nd

4:47Dylan Larkin · Slashingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
6:04Victor Antipin · Hookingdrawn by Frans Nielsen2 min
16:43Dylan Larkin · Interferencedrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

3rd

0:56Anthony Mantha · Holdingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min
1:32Jack Eichel · Hookingdrawn by Frans Nielsen2 min
14:57Ryan O'Reilly · Slashingdrawn by Henrik Zetterberg2 min
14:57Henrik Zetterberg · Trippingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

100%

Biggest swing: Benoit Pouliot, 2nd 9:45 — BUF 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.9 xG · 40 att

←

attacks

attacks →

0 G · 2.1 xG · 39 att BUF

1 G · 2.9 xG · 40 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.10 G
All situations: 1 G2.9; 1.80 G
Even strength: 1 G1.3; 0.30 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

55%45%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.04 – 1.81

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 32; 45%
Faceoffs: 55%; 0/2
Power play: 0/4; 10
Penalty minutes: 6; 19
Hits: 28; 6
Blocked shots: 8; 7
Giveaways: 9; 5
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Detroit Red Wings skaters
Skater	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
25M. GreenD	0	0	0.01	0	1	0	—	24:48
83T. DaleyD	0	4	0.06	0	0	0	—	22:54
52J. EricssonD	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	22:20
55N. KronwallD	0	1	0.06	2	0	0	—	20:29
40H. ZetterbergC	-1	2	0.09	1	0	2	58	20:28
71D. LarkinC	0	2	0.35	0	0	6	55	20:16
14G. NyquistR	0	4	0.06	0	0	0	—	19:01
21T. TatarL	0	1	0.13	1	3	0	—	18:29
8J. AbdelkaderL	-1	3	0.39	2	1	0	50	17:45
39A. ManthaR	0	2	0.13	3	0	2	—	17:35
43D. HelmC	0	1	0.16	0	0	0	0	17:01
51F. NielsenC	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	17	14:51
3N. JensenD	-1	1	0.00	1	0	0	—	13:24
61X. OuelletD	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	12:39
42M. FrkR	0	3	0.37	1	0	0	—	12:09
41L. GlendeningC	-1	5	0.16	3	1	0	64	09:11
23S. WilsonC	0	3	0.14	0	0	0	0	05:52
28L. WitkowskiD	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	—	02:54

Detroit Red Wings goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35J. Howard(L)	32	31	1	.969	1.85	+0.85	57:54

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score