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Sabres at Penguins
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
4
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸5
Final/OTTV ATTSN-PT, MSG-B·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-4 in overtime, Conor Sheary scoring at 0:16. The Penguins came back from two goals down. The Sabres led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Conor Sheary's goal at 0:16 of overtime, which took the Penguins' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.3 to 2.7; shots on goal were BUF 32, PIT 45. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Robin Lehner stopped 40 of 45 (.889), 1.7 goals below expected; Matt Murray stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Conor Sheary (2 G), 2. Patric Hornqvist (1 G, 2 A), 3. Sam Reinhart (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    C. Sheary2 G
  2. ★★
    PIT
    P. Hornqvist1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    S. Reinhart1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF2132130600432
PITPIT11521611311545

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    E. Kane(10)
    J. Eichel (11), S. Reinhart (4)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:45
  2. BUF
    S. Reinhart(3)PPG
    M. Scandella (4), K. Okposo (5)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    16:53
  3. PIT
    P. Hornqvist(6)
    R. Sheahan (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    19:41

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(5)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    0:16
  2. PIT
    C. Sheary(7)
    P. Hornqvist (4), O. Maatta (8)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    4:28
  3. PIT
    S. Crosby(6)PPG
    P. Hornqvist (5), P. Kessel (16)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +19 pts
    3-3
    17:15
  4. BUF
    B. Pouliot(6)PPG
    S. Reinhart (5)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +19 pts
    4-3
    19:53

3rd period

  1. PIT
    P. Kessel(8)
    E. Malkin (14), I. Cole (2)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +36 pts
    4-4
    13:49

Overtime

  1. PIT
    C. Sheary(8)
    S. Crosby (9), K. Letang (13)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +49 pts
    4-5
    0:16

Penalties

BUF 14 PIM·PIT 10 PIM

1st

  • 5:55BUFKyle Okposo · Slashingdrawn by Olli Maatta2 min
  • 14:19PITIan Cole · Roughingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min
  • 14:19BUFJack Eichel · Roughingdrawn by Ian Cole2 min
  • 14:19BUFEvander Kane · Roughingdrawn by Ian Cole2 min
  • 15:58PITEvgeni Malkin · Trippingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min

2nd

  • 8:56BUFMatt Moulson · Hookingdrawn by Phil Kessel2 min
  • 10:05BUFBenoit Pouliot · Cross checkingdrawn by Bryan Rust2 min
  • 10:21BUFMarco Scandella · Slashingdrawn by Patric Hornqvist2 min
  • 10:21PITPatric Hornqvist · Interferencedrawn by Marco Scandella2 min
  • 13:17PITKris Letang · Trippingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 16:21BUFNick Baptiste · Slashingdrawn by Bryan Rust2 min
  • 18:38PITRyan Reaves · Elbowingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalBUF goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Conor Sheary, OT 0:16 — PIT 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.24C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.18S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.18P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.15P. Kessel · Goal · xG 0.15S. Crosby · Goal · xG 0.13P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.13R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.12B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.12P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.12C. Sheary · Goal · xG 0.11C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.10C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.09C. Sheary · Goal · xG 0.09E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.08E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.08P. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.07B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.06C. Ruhwedel · On goal · xG 0.06B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.06S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.06S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.06E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.05J. Schultz · Missed · xG 0.05C. Hagelin · Missed · xG 0.05R. Reaves · Missed · xG 0.04E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.04P. Hornqvist · Goal · xG 0.04J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.04R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.03T. Kuhnhackl · On goal · xG 0.03P. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.03C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.02B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.02J. Schultz · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.02P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.02I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.02B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.02B. Dumoulin · Missed · xG 0.01S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.01O. Maatta · Missed · xG 0.01J. Schultz · Missed · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01J. Schultz · Missed · xG 0.01E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.01B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.01O. Maatta · Missed · xG 0.01E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.01T. Kuhnhackl · On goal · xG 0.01T. Kuhnhackl · On goal · xG 0.01C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.01O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT5 G · 3.3 xG · 61 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPIT
2.74 G
All situations
5 G3.3
1.32 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
1.12 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF39%61%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.63 – 3.29

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPIT
32
Shots on goal
45
39%
Faceoffs
61%
2/3
Power play
1/5
14
Penalty minutes
10
28
Hits
35
20
Blocked shots
4
9
Giveaways
5
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6M. ScandellaD011+100.08402—26:34
4J. GorgesD000-100.00300—22:25
15J. EichelC112+150.311023722:10
90R. O'ReillyC000-110.170205220:41
9E. KaneL101+150.52402—20:28
41J. FalkD000+100.00240—20:23
19J. McCabeD000-100.00410—20:16
23S. ReinhartC123+240.28120018:36
82N. BeaulieuD000-230.08020—17:02
67B. PouliotL101-120.36212—16:57
21K. OkposoR011-150.40122—16:08
22J. LarssonL000-220.243003116:03
29J. PominvilleR000-230.210103312:24
28Z. GirgensonsC000-110.010105010:24
27T. FedunD000-100.00130—10:22
26M. MoulsonL000-100.00012—08:57
17J. NolanC000000.00200006:26
13N. BaptisteR000010.01002—05:38
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40R. Lehner(O)45405.8893.32-1.6860:16

Season series

PIT leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).