NFL Market
Week 7 · book vs exchange
| Game | Book | Exchange | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 NENew England Patriots CHIChicago Bears | -1.5o47.5 | — | +2 | — |
 PITPittsburgh Steelers NONew Orleans Saints | +2.5o42.5 | — | +3.5 | — |
 CINCincinnati Bengals BALBaltimore Ravens | -3.5o51.5 | — | -6 | — |
 NYGNew York Giants HOUHouston Texans | -5.5o43.5 | — | -8.5 | — |
 SFSan Francisco 49ers ATLAtlanta Falcons | +4.5o47.5 | — | +3.5 | — |
 CLECleveland Browns TENTennessee Titans | -2.5o40.5 | — | +1.5 | — |
 INDIndianapolis Colts MINMinnesota Vikings | -2.5o46.5 | — | -0.5 | — |
 MIAMiami Dolphins NYJNew York Jets | -2.5o41.5 | — | +2.5 | — |
 TBTampa Bay Buccaneers CARCarolina Panthers | +1.5o45.5 | — | -1 | — |
 DENDenver Broncos ARIArizona Cardinals | +7.5o43.5 | — | +6 | — |
 LARLos Angeles Rams LVLas Vegas Raiders | +7.5o46.5 | — | +9 | — |
 GBGreen Bay Packers DETDetroit Lions | -2.5o50.5 | — | -3.5 | — |
 KCKansas City Chiefs SEASeattle Seahawks | -3o45.5 | — | -7.5 | — |
 DALDallas Cowboys PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | -3o48.5 | — | -6 | — |
0 of 14 games are quoted on the exchange. Spreads are home-relative — a negative number means the home team is favoured. Gap is the exchange minus the book on the same game: a disagreement between two venues, not a call by us. Model is ours — point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field, fitted on 1,087 games and scored on seasons it never saw. There is no “edge” column because we measured for one and did not find it: against the closing line over a full season our number went 133–133, and the closing line predicted the final margin more accurately than we did.