Virginia Lynchburg vs. Presbyterian: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Virginia Lynchburg0-2

00

Presbyterian1-1

▸0052

Final

Bailey Memorial Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
VIRG	0	0	0	0	0
PRES	10	28	14	0	52

VIRGTeam statsPRES

78Total yards448

81Pass251

-3Rush197

8First downs25

3-153rd down5-12

0Turnovers0

28:36Possession31:24

Scoring plays

• Q3 2:04PRESJayden Pressey 35 Yd pass from Warner Bush (Peter Lipscombe Kick)0–52
• Q3 6:05PRESDominic Kibby 47 Yd pass from Ty Englehart (Peter Lipscombe Kick)0–45
• Q2 0:19PRESCollin Hurst 1 Yd Run (Mack Mikko Kick)0–38
• Q2 6:51PRESAntonio Wright 4 Yd Run (Mack Mikko Kick)0–31
• Q2 10:21PRESNathan Levicki 19 Yd pass from Collin Hurst (Mack Mikko Kick)0–24
• Q2 13:37PRESNathan Levicki 5 Yd pass from Ty Englehart (Mack Mikko Kick)0–17
• Q1 5:42PRESMack Mikko 33 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 8:03PRESZach Switzer 6 Yd Run (Mack Mikko Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• VIRG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PRES did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.7 vs 3rd & 6.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

PRES 100%50%VIRG 100%

Kickoff144 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

PRES (top)VIRG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: PRES 100%

Leaders

Virginia Lynchburg

• PassMatthew Jenks 14/35, 81 YDS
• RushJacob Newman 9 CAR, 30 YDS
• RecRyan Sims 10 REC, 50 YDS

Presbyterian

• PassTy Englehart 5/5, 107 YDS, 2 TD
• RushQuante Jennings 7 CAR, 59 YDS
• RecDominic Kibby 7 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

125

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

PRES up 52 entering the 4th quarter. Across 40 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

PRES went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WNorth Dakota State vs Western Illinois52-7WMontana vs Morehead State59-2WGeorgia Tech vs VMI59-7WUC Davis vs Northern Colorado59-7WUT Martin vs Houston Christian66-7

Fourth downs

18 calls

PRES gave up 1.4 points to the model on fourth down.VIRG 8/10 · PRES 3/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Virginia Lynchburg vs. Presbyterian?

Virginia Lynchburg 0, Presbyterian 52.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (PRES) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

VIRG

PRES

18%

Success rate

55%

-0.21

EPA / pass

0.33

-0.46

EPA / rush

0.19

18%

Early-down success

60%

19%

Pass success

43%

14%

Rush success

64%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

43%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

75%

Pass rate

44%

9.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.9

VIRG

9.7 yards to go on 3rd down

56 scrimmage snaps

PRES

6.9 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

VIRG		PRES
78	Total yards	448
81	Passing yards	251
-3	Rushing yards	197
8	First downs	25
3-15	3rd down	5-12
0-2	4th down	0-2
15/36	Comp/Att	15/24
2.3	Yards per pass	10.5
-0.2	Yards per rush	4.9
0	Turnovers	0
9-81	Penalties	9-77
28:36	Possession	31:24

Fourth downs

18 calls

VIRG

8/10 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

PRES

3/5 with the model

−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 4:15 PRES go for it on 4th & 15 at VIRG 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.11 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

VIRG 0/14 scoring drives← own end zone →PRES 8/13 scoring drives

VIRGPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 15Q1

PRESTD6 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1

VIRGPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 3Q1

PRESFG7 pl, 15 yds· opp 31Q1

VIRGPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1

PRESPUNT4 pl, 9 yds· own 32Q1

VIRGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 10Q1

PRESTD4 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q1

VIRGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

PRESTD3 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q2

VIRGPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q2

PRESTD6 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q2

VIRGPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 14Q2

PRESDOWNS4 pl, -5 yds· opp 24Q2

VIRGDOWNS9 pl, 37 yds· own 29Q2

PRESTD6 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q2

VIRGEND1 pl, 3 yds· own 12Q2

PRESTD8 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q3

VIRGPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3

PRESPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 46Q3

VIRGPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 20Q3

PRESTD1 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q3

VIRGDOWNS8 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q3

PRESPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 41Q4

VIRGPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 15Q4

PRESDOWNS7 pl, 19 yds· opp 30Q4

VIRGEND2 pl, 7 yds· own 11Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 2:04PRESJayden Pressey 35 Yd pass from Warner Bush (Peter Lipscombe Kick)0–52
• Q3 6:05PRESDominic Kibby 47 Yd pass from Ty Englehart (Peter Lipscombe Kick)0–45
• Q2 0:19PRESCollin Hurst 1 Yd Run (Mack Mikko Kick)0–38
• Q2 6:51PRESAntonio Wright 4 Yd Run (Mack Mikko Kick)0–31
• Q2 10:21PRESNathan Levicki 19 Yd pass from Collin Hurst (Mack Mikko Kick)0–24
• Q2 13:37PRESNathan Levicki 5 Yd pass from Ty Englehart (Mack Mikko Kick)0–17
• Q1 5:42PRESMack Mikko 33 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 8:03PRESZach Switzer 6 Yd Run (Mack Mikko Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →