UAB vs. Memphis Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where UAB gets at Memphis: 52nd at running it, against a unit 127th at defending the run. Where Memphis gets at UAB: 30th at running it, against a unit 131st at defending the run. UAB is also 47th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 98th.
How
UABattacks
MEM
- 1
Run it
running it · 22% this season, 2 games
UAB+0.28#52 of 138MEM+0.34#127 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 23% this season, 2 games
UAB11.4%#47 of 138MEM13.1%#98 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 51% this season, 2 games
UAB1.14#75 of 138MEM1.39#121 of 138
HowMEMattacksUAB
- 1
Run it
running it · 27% this season, 3 games
MEM+0.22#30 of 138UAB+0.14#131 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 26% this season, 3 games
MEM3.29#40 of 138UAB3.35#137 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · 27% this season, 3 games
MEM+0.64#54 of 138UAB+0.24#126 of 138
The two teams
UAB
UAB is in year 1 under Alex Mortensen. The way in is 137th at shutting down the ground game, and they are 137th on early downs defensively.
UAB has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground48%#137 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down54%#137 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets3.35#137 of 138
Memphis
Memphis is in year 1 under Charles Huff, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 127th at defending the run, and they are 121st at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −38.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Memphis has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.50#4 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.22#30 of 138
Soft spots
- Defenserunning it+0.34#127 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.39#121 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down54%#120 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1526, UAB Elo 1403 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM -7.9 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UAB111th129thMEMMEM7th133rdUABThrough the air
UAB130th125thMEMMEM46th3rdUABOn the ground
UAB122nd130thMEMMEM32nd22ndUABStaying on the field
UAB22nd72ndMEMMEM110th125thUABTaking care of it
UAB21st22ndMEMMEM104th127thUAB
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUAB leads 11–7 · 39% have been one-possession games
| UAB | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#92) | CORE overall | +6.1 (#46) |
| +0 / +5 | offense / defense | +10 / +4 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.41 |
| 3.00 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 6% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -17 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UAB vs. Memphis?
Gridpex's model favors Memphis with a 69% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UAB vs. Memphis?
The model projects Memphis by 7.9.
What time is UAB vs. Memphis and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →