Northwestern vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Indiana gets at Northwestern: 15th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 111th at stuffing runs at the line. Northwestern projects no clear way in against Indiana. Indiana is also 11th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 92nd.
How
IUattacks
NU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
IU#15 of 138NU#111 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
IU#11 of 138NU#92 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
IU#11 of 138NU#85 of 138
The two teams
Northwestern
Northwestern is in year 4 under David Braun, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 20th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 111th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 110th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −34.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Northwestern has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#20projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#111projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#110projected
Indiana
Indiana is in year 3 under Curt Cignetti, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 2nd at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 125th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 113th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Indiana has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#4projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#5projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#125projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#113projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 2113, NU Elo 1549 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IU -18.2 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NU4th15thIUIU11th60thNUThrough the air
NU40th16thIUIU78th129thNUOn the ground
NU31st31stIUIU33rd98thNUStaying on the field
NU68th33rdIUIU9th89thNUTaking care of it
NU1st76thIUIU21st108thNU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNorthwestern leads 47–36–1 · Indiana has won 2 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Northwestern vs. Indiana?
Gridpex's model favors Indiana with a 90% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Northwestern vs. Indiana?
The model projects Indiana by 18.2.
What time is Northwestern vs. Indiana and what channel is it on?
Fri, Sep 25, 8:00 PM ET, at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →