#45Telly Johnson Jr.

RB·Northern Illinois·2025

Telly Johnson Jr. is a Pass-Catching Back for Northern Illinois.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Telly Johnson Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

690 Rush yards4 Rush TD124 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions97 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume56
Explosiveness52
Consistency0
Receiving83

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.09 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.49 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Eastern Michigan (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsHoly Cross	W19-17	—	21	67	3.2	0	1	2	0	-0.23
2	@Maryland	L9-20	0.6	10	86	8.6	1	2	17	0	0.28
4	@Mississippi State	L10-38	4.1	6	46	7.7	0	2	10	0	0.15
5	vsSan Diego State	L3-6	6.7	16	53	3.3	0	—	—	—	-0.23
6	vsMiami (OH)	L14-25	-3.4	2	6	3.0	0	4	20	0	-0.28
7	@Eastern Michigan	L10-16	-14.7	12	137	11.4	1	2	12	0	0.49
8	@Ohio	L21-48	-4.0	11	64	5.8	0	1	9	0	0.27
9	vsBall State	W21-7	-23.0	15	100	6.7	1	—	—	—	0.06
11	@Toledo	L3-42	6.0	10	20	2.0	0	3	26	0	-0.33
12	@Massachusetts	W45-3	-36.6	7	33	4.7	0	—	—	—	-0.19
13	vsWestern Michigan	L19-35	-1.4	6	42	7.0	1	—	—	—	0.13
14	vsKent State	L31-35	-19.3	8	36	4.5	0	1	1	0	-0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

19.7%

Passing plays

9.0%

Rushing plays

25.8%

Standard downs

20.1%

Passing downs

18.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.09
Passing downs: 0.18
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.18 / 0.03

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).