Long Island University vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Long Island University0-1

▸0028

Eastern Michigan0-1

0023

Final

Rynearson Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LONG	7	7	0	14	28
EMU	3	7	0	13	23

LONGTeam statsEMU

479Total yards311

248Pass189

231Rush122

21First downs17

11-173rd down5-12

0Turnovers0

37:53Possession22:07

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:41EMUJamarien Wheeler 5 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)28–23
• Q4 1:56LONGLuca Stanzani 2 Yd Run (Lance Maiberg Kick)28–16
• Q4 11:40EMUDontae McMillan 40 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–16
• Q4 12:21LONGLuca Stanzani 14 Yd Run (Lance Maiberg Kick)21–10
• Q2 10:19EMUDontae McMillan 33 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)14–10
• Q2 13:34LONGEthan Greenwood 2 Yd Run (Lance Maiberg Kick)14–3
• Q1 6:43EMURudy Kessinger 32 Yd Field Goal 7–3
• Q1 10:46LONGEthan Greenwood 65 Yd Run (Lance Maiberg Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

EMU −22

Against the number

LONG covered

line EMU −22

What the numbers say

• EMU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 38% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

EMU 100%50%LONG 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

EMU (top)LONG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: EMU 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

EMU −22

Closing total

54.0

Model line

—

Actual result

LONG 28 – 23 EMU

Leaders

Long Island University

• PassLuca Stanzani 12/18, 143 YDS
• RushEthan Greenwood 7 CAR, 91 YDS, 2 TD
• RecLuca Stanzani 1 REC, 74 YDS

Eastern Michigan

• PassNoah Kim 18/29, 189 YDS, 2 TD
• RushDontae McMillan 8 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
• RecTerry Lockett Jr. 8 REC, 78 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

12.3sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

191

Points / snap

0.27

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

LONG up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

65%

LONG went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WSan Diego State vs Ohio20-13LNebraska vs Minnesota10-13LMorgan State vs Akron21-24LDrake vs Northwestern (IA)24-33WHawai'i vs UAlbany31-20

Fourth downs

23 calls

EMU gave up 1.5 points to the model on fourth down.LONG 8/11 · EMU 9/12 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Long Island University vs. Eastern Michigan?

Long Island University 28, Eastern Michigan 23.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked EMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LONG

EMU

47%

Success rate

38%

0.58

EPA / pass

0.26

0.11

EPA / rush

0.06

43%

Early-down success

40%

54%

Pass success

47%

43%

Rush success

27%

17%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

28%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

38%

Pass rate

55%

5.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.3

LONG

5.4 yards to go on 3rd down

109 scrimmage snaps

EMU

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

82 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LONG		EMU
479	Total yards	311
248	Passing yards	189
231	Rushing yards	122
21	First downs	17
11-17	3rd down	5-12
0-1	4th down	0-1
15/24	Comp/Att	18/29
10.3	Yards per pass	6.5
5.1	Yards per rush	4.9
0	Turnovers	0
3-22	Penalties	0-0
37:53	Possession	22:07

Fourth downs

23 calls

LONG

8/11 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

EMU

9/12 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 13:03 EMU punt on 4th & 1 at EMU 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.

Every call, priced (23)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LONG 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →EMU 4/10 scoring drives

EMUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 31Q1

LONGTD5 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q1

EMUFG10 pl, 58 yds· own 28Q1

EMUPUNT7 pl, 22 yds· own 16Q1

LONGPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

EMUTD8 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q2

LONGPUNT6 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q2

LONGTD6 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q1

EMUPUNT5 pl, 24 yds· own 20Q2

EMUPUNT4 pl, 13 yds· own 20Q3

LONGPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 22Q3

EMUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 26Q3

LONGDOWNS11 pl, 77 yds· own 18Q3

LONGMISS6 pl, 58 yds· own 35Q3

LONGTD1 pl, 14 yds· opp 14Q4

EMUTD2 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q4

LONGTD16 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

EMUTD8 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q4

LONGEND1 pl, -2 yds· opp 44Q4

EMUDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 5Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:41EMUJamarien Wheeler 5 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)28–23
• Q4 1:56LONGLuca Stanzani 2 Yd Run (Lance Maiberg Kick)28–16
• Q4 11:40EMUDontae McMillan 40 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–16
• Q4 12:21LONGLuca Stanzani 14 Yd Run (Lance Maiberg Kick)21–10
• Q2 10:19EMUDontae McMillan 33 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)14–10
• Q2 13:34LONGEthan Greenwood 2 Yd Run (Lance Maiberg Kick)14–3
• Q1 6:43EMURudy Kessinger 32 Yd Field Goal 7–3
• Q1 10:46LONGEthan Greenwood 65 Yd Run (Lance Maiberg Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Long Island University were +22 — a 8% shot

#30 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #3 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.

The 2025 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →