Toledo vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsBUF
- Q4 5:08TOLJerjuan Newton 23 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (John Alan Richter Pass to Anthony Torres for Two-Point Conversion)15–30
- Q4 9:13BUFUpton Bellenfant 33 Yd Field Goal 7–30
- Q4 13:52BUFC.J. Ogbonna 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–27
- Q3 2:29TOLJerjuan Newton 26 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–21
- Q3 4:19BUFC.J. Ogbonna 2 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–21
- Q3 10:40BUFJake Orlando 2 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:55BUFVictor Snow 2 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TOL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassJohn Alan Richter 16/23, 227 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTucker Gleason 6 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecJerjuan Newton 7 REC, 159 YDS, 2 TD
- PassC.J. Ogbonna 11/20, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAl-Jay Henderson 18 CAR, 142 YDS
- RecJJ Jenkins 2 REC, 43 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBUF up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,010 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:55BUF +19%
Victor Snow 2 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)
- Q3 4:19BUF +17%
C.J. Ogbonna 2 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)
- Q3 10:40BUF +14%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 2 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
- Q3 4:11BUF +12%
John Alan Richter run for 7 yds to the TOL 23
- Q3 2:29TOL +10%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
- Q4 13:52BUF +8%
Ethan Duane pass incomplete to Andrew Schnackenberg
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Buffalo?
Toledo 15, Buffalo 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TOL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TOL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 418 | Total yards | 357 |
| 372 | Passing yards | 127 |
| 46 | Rushing yards | 230 |
| 21 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 30/49 | Comp/Att | 11/20 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 8-64 |
| 26:08 | Possession | 33:52 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:35 BUF punt on 4th & 1 at BUF 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:08TOLJerjuan Newton 23 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (John Alan Richter Pass to Anthony Torres for Two-Point Conversion)15–30
- Q4 9:13BUFUpton Bellenfant 33 Yd Field Goal 7–30
- Q4 13:52BUFC.J. Ogbonna 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–27
- Q3 2:29TOLJerjuan Newton 26 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–21
- Q3 4:19BUFC.J. Ogbonna 2 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–21
- Q3 10:40BUFJake Orlando 2 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:55BUFVictor Snow 2 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1228, TOL Elo 1574 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF +11.4 (23% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #41 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Toledo leads 6–5 · 18% have been one-possession games
| TOL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3 (#67) | CORE overall | -11.6 (#104) |
| -8 / -7 | offense / defense | -8 / +3 |
| 1.78 | points / drive | 2.24 |
| 1.68 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →