Kentucky vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsFLA
- Q4 3:23FLACormani McClain 29 Yd Interception Return (Trey Smack Kick)20–48
- Q4 3:31FLAJadan Baugh 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)20–41
- Q3 3:27FLAJadan Baugh 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)20–34
- Q3 8:34UKGavin Wimsatt 1 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)20–27
- Q2 1:30UKBarion Brown 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Alex Raynor Kick)13–27
- Q2 1:44FLAJadan Baugh 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)6–27
- Q2 2:10FLAJadan Baugh 10 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)6–20
- Q2 8:15FLAJadan Baugh 7 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)6–13
- Q2 12:05UKBarion Brown 45 Yd pass from Brock Vandagriff (Alex Raynor PAT failed)6–6
- Q2 14:13FLATrey Smack 33 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 10:27FLATrey Smack 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBrock Vandagriff 12/26, 165 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDemie Sumo-Karngbaye 10 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecBarion Brown 2 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDJ Lagway 7/14, 259 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJadan Baugh 22 CAR, 106 YDS, 5 TD
- RecElijhah Badger 3 REC, 148 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,009 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:15FLA +21%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
- Q2 2:10FLA +21%
Jadan Baugh run for 10 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
- Q3 8:34UK +18%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
- Q2 12:05UK +17%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 45 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor PAT MISSED)
- Q3 3:27FLA +16%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
- Q2 1:44FLA +11%
Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. Florida?
Kentucky 20, Florida 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UK | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 309 | Total yards | 476 |
| 165 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 197 |
| 17 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 12/32 | Comp/Att | 8/15 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 18.6 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 29:54 | Possession | 30:06 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:28 UK punt on 4th & 1 at UK 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.84 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:23FLACormani McClain 29 Yd Interception Return (Trey Smack Kick)20–48
- Q4 3:31FLAJadan Baugh 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)20–41
- Q3 3:27FLAJadan Baugh 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)20–34
- Q3 8:34UKGavin Wimsatt 1 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)20–27
- Q2 1:30UKBarion Brown 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Alex Raynor Kick)13–27
- Q2 1:44FLAJadan Baugh 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)6–27
- Q2 2:10FLAJadan Baugh 10 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)6–20
- Q2 8:15FLAJadan Baugh 7 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)6–13
- Q2 12:05UKBarion Brown 45 Yd pass from Brock Vandagriff (Alex Raynor PAT failed)6–6
- Q2 14:13FLATrey Smack 33 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 10:27FLATrey Smack 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1548, UK Elo 1645 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA +1.5 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #96 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Florida leads 54–22 · 33% have been one-possession games
| UK | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.9 (#65) | CORE overall | +11.1 (#33) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | +4 / -7 |
| 1.69 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 2.04 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →