Texas vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsKU
- OT 0:00KUMatthew Wyman 25 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q4 0:07KUMatthew Wyman 36 Yd Field Goal 21–21
- Q4 7:48KUKhalil Herbert 1 Yd Run (Steven Sims Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–18
- Q4 13:34TEXD'Onta Foreman 1 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)21–10
- Q3 11:27TEXD'Onta Foreman 2 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)14–10
- Q2 2:27KUMatthew Wyman 36 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 5:04KUBrandon Stewart 55 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Wyman Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49TEXJacorey Warrick 75 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Trent Domingue Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassShane Buechele 17/26, 165 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushD'Onta Foreman 51 CAR, 250 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJacorey Warrick 3 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCarter Stanley 21/42, 220 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKe'aun Kinner 20 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecSteven Sims 7 REC, 79 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00TEX +99%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 25
- Q4 0:07KU +85%
Matthew Wyman 36 Yd Field Goal
- OT 0:00KU +42%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Mike Lee return for 35 yds to the Kans 40
- OT 0:00KU +32%
Matthew Wyman 25 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 1:37TEX +21%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 32
- Q4 7:48KU +20%
Khalil Herbert 1 Yd Run (Steven Sims Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. Kansas?
Texas 21, Kansas 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TEX, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TEX | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 403 | Total yards | 332 |
| 165 | Passing yards | 220 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 112 |
| 22 | First downs | 15 |
| 3-17 | 3rd down | 3-17 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 17/27 | Comp/Att | 21/42 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 9-85 |
| 33:02 | Possession | 26:58 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:36 TEX punt on 4th & 2 at TEX 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00KUMatthew Wyman 25 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q4 0:07KUMatthew Wyman 36 Yd Field Goal 21–21
- Q4 7:48KUKhalil Herbert 1 Yd Run (Steven Sims Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–18
- Q4 13:34TEXD'Onta Foreman 1 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)21–10
- Q3 11:27TEXD'Onta Foreman 2 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)14–10
- Q2 2:27KUMatthew Wyman 36 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 5:04KUBrandon Stewart 55 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Wyman Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49TEXJacorey Warrick 75 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Trent Domingue Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1007, TEX Elo 1609 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +21.7 (9% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#55 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #7 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Texas leads 18–4 · Texas has won 2 straight · 32% have been one-possession games
| TEX | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.8 (#52) | CORE overall | -21.1 (#120) |
| +1 / -3 | offense / defense | -18 / +3 |
| 2.24 | points / drive | 0.89 |
| 2.15 | allowed / drive | 2.65 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →