UCLA vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCLATeam statsCAL
- Q4 9:41CALBug Rivera 2 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Matt Anderson Kick)10–36
- Q4 12:26CALMatt Anderson 19 Yd Field Goal 10–29
- Q3 3:05UCLAJJ Molson 28 Yd Field Goal 10–26
- Q3 6:07CALJordan Duncan 2 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Matt Anderson Kick)7–26
- Q3 8:17CALMalik McMorris 1 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)7–19
- Q3 11:00UCLAKenneth Walker III 7 Yd pass from Mike Fafaul (JJ Molson Kick)7–12
- Q2 2:00CALMatt Anderson 24 Yd Field Goal 0–12
- Q2 9:42CALMatt Anderson 44 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q2 13:43CALMatt Anderson 25 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 3:37CALMatt Anderson 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UCLA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CAL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 6.7
- UCLA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 27% success rate
- PassMike Fafaul 12/30, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushNate Starks 11 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecCaleb Wilson 3 REC, 83 YDS
- PassDavis Webb 32/48, 301 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKhalfani Muhammad 29 CAR, 116 YDS
- RecChad Hansen 10 REC, 156 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCAL up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:00UCLA +26%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 7 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
- Q3 8:17CAL +21%
Malik McMorris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
- Q3 6:07CAL +10%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
- Q2 9:42CAL +9%
Matt Anderson 44 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 13:43CAL +9%
Matt Anderson 25 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 2:00CAL +9%
Matt Anderson 24 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UCLA vs. California?
UCLA 10, California 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCLA | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 260 | Total yards | 496 |
| 176 | Passing yards | 301 |
| 84 | Rushing yards | 195 |
| 11 | First downs | 34 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 6-19 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 12/30 | Comp/Att | 32/48 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-95 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 17:51 | Possession | 42:09 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:26 CAL field goal on 4th & 2 at UCLA 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:41CALBug Rivera 2 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Matt Anderson Kick)10–36
- Q4 12:26CALMatt Anderson 19 Yd Field Goal 10–29
- Q3 3:05UCLAJJ Molson 28 Yd Field Goal 10–26
- Q3 6:07CALJordan Duncan 2 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Matt Anderson Kick)7–26
- Q3 8:17CALMalik McMorris 1 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)7–19
- Q3 11:00UCLAKenneth Walker III 7 Yd pass from Mike Fafaul (JJ Molson Kick)7–12
- Q2 2:00CALMatt Anderson 24 Yd Field Goal 0–12
- Q2 9:42CALMatt Anderson 44 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q2 13:43CALMatt Anderson 25 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 3:37CALMatt Anderson 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1442, UCLA Elo 1621 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL +4.8 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #87 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →UCLA leads 58–35–1 · 31% have been one-possession games
| UCLA | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.6 (#37) | CORE overall | -3.9 (#81) |
| -3 / -11 | offense / defense | +7 / +11 |
| 1.84 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +13 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →