Eastern Washington vs. Washington State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Eastern Washington
▸
Washington State
Final
Gesa Field
EASTTeam statsWSU
606Total yards515
496Pass418
110Rush97
28First downs32
6-113rd down7-12
1Turnovers1
27:51Possession32:17
- Q4 0:14WSUGerard Wicks 3 Yd Run (Erik Powell Kick)45–42
- Q4 1:39EASTGage Gubrud 30 Yd Run (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)45–35
- Q4 4:42WSUGerard Wicks 9 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)38–35
- Q3 10:34EASTCooper Kupp 7 Yd pass from Gage Gubrud (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)38–28
- Q3 13:13EASTCooper Kupp 26 Yd pass from Gage Gubrud (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)31–28
- Q2 0:00EASTJordan Dascalo 48 Yd Field Goal 24–28
- Q2 5:38WSUJamal Morrow 5 Yd Run (Erik Powell Kick)21–28
- Q2 9:25EASTCooper Kupp 75 Yd pass from Gage Gubrud (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)21–21
- Q2 9:36WSUGabe Marks 2 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:32EASTSam McPherson 6 Yd pass from Gage Gubrud (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:16WSUKyle Sweet 27 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:32EASTAntoine Custer Jr. 14 Yd pass from Gage Gubrud (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:29WSUGabe Marks 53 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
WSU −27.5
Against the number
EAST covered
line WSU −27.5
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
WSU (top)EAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WSU 0%
Closing line
WSU −27.5
Closing total
—
Model line
—
Actual result
EAST 45 – 42 WSU
consensus, liveWSU −27.5
Eastern Washington
- PassGage Gubrud 34/40, 474 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushGage Gubrud 14 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCooper Kupp 12 REC, 206 YDS, 3 TD
Washington State
- PassLuke Falk 41/51, 418 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushGerard Wicks 10 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGabe Marks 10 REC, 108 YDS, 2 TD
23.4sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
153
Points / snap
0.57
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsEAST up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
EAST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Washington vs. Washington State?
Eastern Washington 45, Washington State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
EAST
WSU
53%
Success rate
53%
0.81
EPA / pass
0.40
0.00
EPA / rush
0.44
52%
Early-down success
54%
60%
Pass success
52%
38%
Rush success
56%
21%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
11%
33%
Stuffed rush rate
9%
67%
Pass rate
72%
6.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.8
EAST
6.3 yards to go on 3rd down
72 scrimmage snaps
WSU
7.8 yards to go on 3rd down
81 scrimmage snaps
| EAST | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 606 | Total yards | 515 |
| 496 | Passing yards | 418 |
| 110 | Rushing yards | 97 |
| 28 | First downs | 32 |
| 6-11 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 35/41 | Comp/Att | 41/52 |
| 12.1 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-118 | Penalties | 12-101 |
| 27:51 | Possession | 32:17 |
EAST
4/5 with the model
−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
WSU
5/5 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q4 10:19 EAST punt on 4th & 3 at EAST 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishEAST 7/13 scoring drives← own end zone →WSU 6/12 scoring drives
WSUPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 34Q1
EASTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q1
WSUPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 30Q1
EASTMISS5 pl, 39 yds· own 37Q1
WSUTD5 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1
EASTTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WSUTD5 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1
EASTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WSUTD9 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2
EASTTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
WSUTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
EASTPUNT7 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2
WSUINT1 pl, 10 yds· own 4Q2
EASTFG5 pl, 16 yds· opp 47Q2
EASTTD5 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q3
WSUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 24Q3
EASTTD3 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q3
WSUPUNT6 pl, 0 yds· own 27Q3
EASTINT10 pl, 70 yds· own 23Q3
WSUMISS14 pl, 59 yds· own 20Q3
EASTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 21Q4
WSUTD8 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4
EASTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
WSUTD9 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4
EASTEND1 pl, -4 yds· opp 42Q4
- Q4 0:14WSUGerard Wicks 3 Yd Run (Erik Powell Kick)45–42
- Q4 1:39EASTGage Gubrud 30 Yd Run (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)45–35
- Q4 4:42WSUGerard Wicks 9 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)38–35
- Q3 10:34EASTCooper Kupp 7 Yd pass from Gage Gubrud (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)38–28
- Q3 13:13EASTCooper Kupp 26 Yd pass from Gage Gubrud (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)31–28
- Q2 0:00EASTJordan Dascalo 48 Yd Field Goal 24–28
- Q2 5:38WSUJamal Morrow 5 Yd Run (Erik Powell Kick)21–28
- Q2 9:25EASTCooper Kupp 75 Yd pass from Gage Gubrud (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)21–21
- Q2 9:36WSUGabe Marks 2 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:32EASTSam McPherson 6 Yd pass from Gage Gubrud (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:16WSUKyle Sweet 27 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:32EASTAntoine Custer Jr. 14 Yd pass from Gage Gubrud (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:29WSUGabe Marks 53 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesEastern Washington were +27.5 — a 4% shot
#28 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #2 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →