Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsULM
- Q4 4:40ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.42–14
- Q4 4:40ARSTARKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.42–14
- Q4 9:26ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.35–14
- Q4 9:26ARSTARKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.34–14
- Q3 1:40ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.28–14
- Q3 1:40ARSTARKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.27–14
- Q3 8:00ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.21–14
- Q3 8:00ARSTARKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.21–14
- Q2 0:08ULMUL MONROE Extra point GOOD.14–14
- Q2 0:08ULMUL MONROE pass complete for a touchdown.14–14
- Q2 14:18ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q2 14:18ARSTARKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.13–7
- Q1 0:00ULMUL MONROE Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 0:00ULMUL MONROE pass complete for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 0:49ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 0:49ARSTARKANSAS ST pass complete for a touchdown.7–0
How the model called it
- PassAdam Kennedy 16/23, 235 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAdam Kennedy 22 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJulian Jones 4 REC, 79 YDS
- PassKolton Browning 17/37, 191 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushKolton Browning 13 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecRashon Ceaser 5 REC, 118 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARST up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:08ULM +23%
Kolton Browning middle pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 9:37ARST +21%
Michael Gordon rush right for 4 yards to the LaMon 16, tackled by Isaiah Newsome and Gerrand Johnson
- Q1 0:49ARST +19%
Adam Kennedy pass complete to Michael Gordon for 51 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 0:00ULM +17%
Kolton Browning deep out pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 59 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:18ARST +17%
Michael Gordon rush left for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 3:58ARST +12%
Adam Kennedy pass incomplete to Darion Griswold, broken up by Isaiah Newsome
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe?
Arkansas State 42, UL Monroe 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARST) was correct.
| ARST | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 494 | Total yards | 328 |
| 235 | Passing yards | 191 |
| 259 | Rushing yards | 137 |
| 24 | First downs | 17 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 2-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 16/23 | Comp/Att | 17/37 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-56 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 35:43 | Possession | 24:17 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:56 ARST punt on 4th & 3 at ULM 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:40ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.42–14
- Q4 4:40ARSTARKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.42–14
- Q4 9:26ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.35–14
- Q4 9:26ARSTARKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.34–14
- Q3 1:40ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.28–14
- Q3 1:40ARSTARKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.27–14
- Q3 8:00ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.21–14
- Q3 8:00ARSTARKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.21–14
- Q2 0:08ULMUL MONROE Extra point GOOD.14–14
- Q2 0:08ULMUL MONROE pass complete for a touchdown.14–14
- Q2 14:18ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q2 14:18ARSTARKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.13–7
- Q1 0:00ULMUL MONROE Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 0:00ULMUL MONROE pass complete for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 0:49ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 0:49ARSTARKANSAS ST pass complete for a touchdown.7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 1294, ARST Elo 1376 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +0.9 (49% to win) — 4.4 points clear of ARST's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #75 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Arkansas State leads 26–9 · 43% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →