Rice vs. Temple Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Temple gets at Rice: 65th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 116th at holding teams to field goals. Rice projects no clear way in against Temple. Temple is also 79th at throwing it, against a unit 126th.
How
TEMattacks
RICE
- 1
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
TEM#65 of 138RICE#116 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
TEM#79 of 138RICE#126 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
TEM#95 of 138RICE#138 of 138
The two teams
Rice
Rice is in year 2 under Scott Abell. The way in is 138th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 132nd at staying on schedule through the air.
Rice has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#138projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#132projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#132projected
Temple
Temple is in year 2 under K.C. Keeler. The way in is 132nd at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 130th at shutting down the ground game.
Temple has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#130projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#128projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEM Elo 1323, RICE Elo 1147 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEM -9.9 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
RICE122nd108thTEMTEM92nd111thRICEThrough the air
RICE138th99thTEMTEM130th97thRICEOn the ground
RICE12th76thTEMTEM41st87thRICEStaying on the field
RICE56th116thTEMTEM127th109thRICETaking care of it
RICE104th46thTEMTEM47th109thRICE
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| RICE | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.5 (#132) | CORE overall | -3.5 (#82) |
| -14 / +6 | offense / defense | -3 / +0 |
| -0.70 | points / drive | 1.25 |
| 5.00 | allowed / drive | 3.38 |
| 60% | three-and-outs | 25% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Rice vs. Temple?
Gridpex's model favors Temple with a 73% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Rice vs. Temple?
The model projects Temple by 9.9.
What time is Rice vs. Temple and what channel is it on?
Thu, Nov 19, 7:30 PM ET, at Lincoln Financial Field.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →