Austin Peay vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AUSTTeam statsVAN
- Q4 14:50VANJosiah Broxton 27 Yd Punt Return (Brock Taylor Kick)9–28
- Q3 5:24VANSedrick Alexander 18 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–21
- Q2 1:33AUSTHamilton DiBoyan 51 Yd Field Goal 9–15
- Q2 6:21VANBlaze Berlowitz 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)6–15
- Q2 14:19VANBrock Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal 6–8
- Q1 6:57VANMartel Hight Defensive PAT Conversion6–5
- Q1 6:57AUSTDenver Harper 24 Yd pass from Chris Parson (Nick Guagliano PAT blocked)6–3
- Q1 8:59VANBrock Taylor 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AUST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VAN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.1
What actually decided Vanderbilt's win over Austin Peay — beyond the final score.
Vanderbilt tops Austin Peay, 28-9 at FirstBank Stadium. Vanderbilt was the steadier side of a 19-point win. Blaze Berlowitz threw for 149 yards on 16 attempts and ran 11 times for 45 yards and one score.
- PassChris Parson 12/21, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCourtland Simmons 5 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecMarvin Sims 6 REC, 55 YDS
- PassBlaze Berlowitz 11/16, 149 YDS
- RushSedrick Alexander 10 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJunior Sherrill 4 REC, 70 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Austin Peay vs. Vanderbilt?
Austin Peay 9, Vanderbilt 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
| AUST | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 178 | Total yards | 395 |
| 116 | Passing yards | 209 |
| 62 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 11 | First downs | 20 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 12/21 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 9-73 |
| 24:13 | Possession | 35:47 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:50VANJosiah Broxton 27 Yd Punt Return (Brock Taylor Kick)9–28
- Q3 5:24VANSedrick Alexander 18 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–21
- Q2 1:33AUSTHamilton DiBoyan 51 Yd Field Goal 9–15
- Q2 6:21VANBlaze Berlowitz 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)6–15
- Q2 14:19VANBrock Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal 6–8
- Q1 6:57VANMartel Hight Defensive PAT Conversion6–5
- Q1 6:57AUSTDenver Harper 24 Yd pass from Chris Parson (Nick Guagliano PAT blocked)6–3
- Q1 8:59VANBrock Taylor 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -43.1 (99% to win) — 14.1 points clear of VAN's market line of -29. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Blaze Berlowitz produced four of Vanderbilt's seven explosive plays
What actually decided Vanderbilt's win over Austin Peay — beyond the final score.
Vanderbilt lived in the backfield
Vanderbilt sacked Austin Peay's quarterback 5 times: Issa Ouattara (2 sacks), Nick Rinaldi (0.5 sacks) and Brian Allen Jr. (1 sack). Vanderbilt converted 4 of 12 third downs (33%) to Austin Peay's 10%, led by Blaze Berlowitz (2/6). That's what carried Vanderbilt.
Who carried it
Blaze Berlowitz threw for 149 yards on 16 attempts and ran 11 times for 45 yards and one score, including that score from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Sedrick Alexander ran 10 times for 60 yards and one score, with that score from inside the 20. Jared Curtis threw for 60 yards on nine attempts and ran three times for 22 yards. For Austin Peay, Denver Harper caught one pass for 24 yards for a touchdown. Marvin Sims caught six passes for 55 yards. Chris Parson threw for 116 yards on 21 attempts with one touchdown and lost 19 yards on nine carries. Issa Ouattara was the disruptive one for Vanderbilt: 2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 1 blocked kick, 3 tackles.
Where it swung
Strip it back and a few snaps did the work. Blaze Berlowitz's 13-yard run on 3rd-and-6 at Q2 09:06. Then Sedrick Alexander's 18-yard run for a touchdown on 4th-and-1 at Q3 05:24. Later, Makhilyn Young's 2-yard run that came up short on 4th-and-1 at Q4 08:07.
The way it played out
Vanderbilt struck first through Brock Taylor, led 15-9 at the half and Vanderbilt got the final points on a late touchdown by Brock Taylor.
Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = AP ahead, below = VAND ahead.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A solid, earned win for Vanderbilt; Austin Peay is left to clean up the details that cost it.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →