Northwestern State vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Northwestern State0-1
South Alabama0-2
▸Final
Hancock Whitney Stadium
NORTTeam statsUSA
237Total yards620
171Pass257
66Rush363
8First downs22
3-153rd down4-7
4Turnovers0
26:47Possession24:13
- Q4 3:57USAJarvis Durr 4 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)10–87
- Q3 0:55USAChrystyile Caldwell 30 Yd Interception Return (Davis Little Kick)10–80
- Q3 2:40USAPJ Martin 4 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)10–73
- Q3 6:48USAJamaal Pritchett 10 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Davis Little Kick)10–66
- Q3 14:18USAKentrel Bullock 59 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–59
- Q2 2:04USAFluff Bothwell 5 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–52
- Q2 9:25USADJ Thomas-Jones 4 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan Kick)10–45
- Q2 10:15USAFluff Bothwell 7 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–38
- Q2 13:15USAKentrel Bullock 1 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–31
- Q1 0:00NORTMyles Kitt-Denton 75 Yd pass from JT Fayard (Reed Honshtein Kick)10–24
- Q1 0:03USALaith Marjan 28 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q1 5:07USADJ Thomas-Jones 12 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan Kick)3–21
- Q1 7:30NORTReed Honshtein 31 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 10:58USAJeremiah Webb 39 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:24USAJamaal Pritchett 62 Yd Punt Return (Laith Marjan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
USA −36.5
Against the number
USA covered
line USA −36.5
Kickoff128 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
USA (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USA 100%
Closing line
USA −36.5
Closing total
60.5
Model line
—
Actual result
NORT 10 – 87 USA
Northwestern State
- PassJ.T. Fayard 9/23, 165 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushZay Davis 9 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecMyles Kitt-Denton 3 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
South Alabama
- PassGio Lopez 15/19, 257 YDS, 4 TD
- RushFluff Bothwell 7 CAR, 143 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJeremiah Webb 2 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
31.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
113
Points / snap
0.86
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSA up 70 entering the 4th quarter. Across 74 historically comparable game states (within ±7 pts and ±10 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
USA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern State vs. South Alabama?
Northwestern State 10, South Alabama 87.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.
NORT
USA
23%
Success rate
61%
0.04
EPA / pass
1.12
-0.24
EPA / rush
0.90
21%
Early-down success
61%
27%
Pass success
78%
19%
Rush success
53%
7%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
23%
19%
Stuffed rush rate
18%
46%
Pass rate
32%
8.9
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.0
NORT
8.9 yards to go on 3rd down
57 scrimmage snaps
USA
7.0 yards to go on 3rd down
56 scrimmage snaps
| NORT | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 237 | Total yards | 620 |
| 171 | Passing yards | 257 |
| 66 | Rushing yards | 363 |
| 8 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 4-7 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 10/25 | Comp/Att | 15/19 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 13.5 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 10.7 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 7-60 |
| 26:47 | Possession | 24:13 |
NORT
8/8 with the model
nothing given up
USA
2/2 with the model
nothing given up
No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishNORT 4/15 scoring drives← own end zone →USA 11/13 scoring drives
NORTTD3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
NORTINT6 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q1
USATD1 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q1
NORTFG8 pl, 61 yds· own 25Q1
USATD5 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1
USAFG9 pl, 63 yds· own 27Q1
NORTTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
USATD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2
USATD3 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q2
NORTINT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2
USATD1 pl, 4 yds· opp 4Q2
NORTPUNT6 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2
USAMISS6 pl, -6 yds· opp 26Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 32Q2
USATD2 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2
NORTEND5 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q2
USATD2 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3
NORTPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q3
USATD9 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
USATD4 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q3
NORTTD3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3
NORTFUM1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
USATD5 pl, 22 yds· opp 22Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 33Q4
USAEND3 pl, 1 yds· own 1Q4
- Q4 3:57USAJarvis Durr 4 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)10–87
- Q3 0:55USAChrystyile Caldwell 30 Yd Interception Return (Davis Little Kick)10–80
- Q3 2:40USAPJ Martin 4 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)10–73
- Q3 6:48USAJamaal Pritchett 10 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Davis Little Kick)10–66
- Q3 14:18USAKentrel Bullock 59 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–59
- Q2 2:04USAFluff Bothwell 5 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–52
- Q2 9:25USADJ Thomas-Jones 4 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan Kick)10–45
- Q2 10:15USAFluff Bothwell 7 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–38
- Q2 13:15USAKentrel Bullock 1 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–31
- Q1 0:00NORTMyles Kitt-Denton 75 Yd pass from JT Fayard (Reed Honshtein Kick)10–24
- Q1 0:03USALaith Marjan 28 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q1 5:07USADJ Thomas-Jones 12 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan Kick)3–21
- Q1 7:30NORTReed Honshtein 31 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 10:58USAJeremiah Webb 39 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:24USAJamaal Pritchett 62 Yd Punt Return (Laith Marjan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →