Murray State vs. South Dakota State: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Murray State0-1

South Dakota State0-1

▸

Final

Dana J. Dykhouse StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
MURR	3	3	0	0	6
SOUT	14	24	14	0	52

MURRTeam statsSOUT

236Total yards595

119Pass252

117Rush343

10First downs31

4-143rd down11-15

1Turnovers0

28:06Possession31:54

Q3 0:09SOUTLofton O'Groske 11 Yd pass from Chase Mason (Hunter Dustman Kick)6–52
Q3 9:42SOUTMaxwell Woods 3 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)6–45
Q2 0:06SOUTHunter Dustman 29 Yd Field Goal 6–38
Q2 2:10SOUTChase Mason 5 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)6–35
Q2 9:00SOUTAmar Johnson 44 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)6–28
Q2 10:15MURRJames London 35 Yd Field Goal 6–21
Q2 14:14SOUTKirby Vorhees 1 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)3–21
Q1 2:46SOUTAngel Johnson 67 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)3–14
Q1 3:33MURRJames London 55 Yd Field Goal 3–7
Q1 12:36SOUTAmar Johnson 10 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

SOUT −42

Against the number

SOUT covered

line SOUT −42

What the numbers say

MURR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SOUT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 6.4

Kickoff154 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SOUT (top)MURR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SOUT 100%

Closing line

SOUT −42

Closing total

54.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MURR 6 – 52 SOUT

Murray State

PassJayden Johannsen 14/18, 95 YDS, 1 INT
RushJawaun Northington 12 CAR, 39 YDS
RecJ'Kalon Carter 5 REC, 54 YDS

South Dakota State

PassMark Gronowski 9/16, 170 YDS, 1 TD
RushAngel Johnson 7 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
RecGriffin Wilde 3 REC, 78 YDS

25.4sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

136

Points / snap

0.43

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SOUT up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 106 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SOUT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WLSU vs Grambling72-10 WRobert Morris vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg46-0 WClemson vs App State66-20 WButler vs Hanover College53-0 WNorth Carolina Central vs Delaware State52-10

FAQ

What was the final score of Murray State vs. South Dakota State?

Murray State 6, South Dakota State 52.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SOUT) was correct.

MURR

SOUT

26%

Success rate

52%

-0.04

EPA / pass

0.25

-0.07

EPA / rush

0.70

23%

Early-down success

48%

35%

Pass success

46%

20%

Rush success

58%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

26%

Stuffed rush rate

16%

43%

Pass rate

49%

8.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.4

MURR

8.7 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

SOUT

6.4 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

MURR		SOUT
236	Total yards	595
119	Passing yards	252
117	Rushing yards	343
10	First downs	31
4-14	3rd down	11-15
1-3	4th down	0-0
16/23	Comp/Att	19/34
5.2	Yards per pass	7.4
3.3	Yards per rush	9.0
1	Turnovers	0
12-108	Penalties	5-35
28:06	Possession	31:54

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

MURRTeam statsSOUT

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of Murray State vs. South Dakota State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Murray State vs. South Dakota State: Final Score & Recap

MURRTeam statsSOUT

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of Murray State vs. South Dakota State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?