Hawai'i vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsUSU
- Q4 1:13USUTanner Cragun 37 Yd Field Goal 10–55
- Q4 5:42HAWDekel Crowdus 44 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)10–52
- Q4 8:35USUDerrick Jameson 21 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick)3–52
- Q3 0:57USUJosh Sterzer 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick)3–45
- Q3 6:18USURahsul Faison 37 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick)3–38
- Q3 9:38USURahsul Faison 37 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick)3–31
- Q2 3:35HAWKansei Matsuzawa 40 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 8:54USUJosh Sterzer 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick)0–24
- Q1 1:06USUWill Monney 16 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Tanner Cragun Kick)0–17
- Q1 5:28USUTanner Cragun 32 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 13:27USUOtto Tia 41 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Tanner Cragun Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrayden Schager 11/19, 124 YDS, 3 INT
- RushLandon Sims 6 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecNick Cenacle 6 REC, 72 YDS
- PassSpencer Petras 20/30, 255 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushRahsul Faison 20 CAR, 191 YDS, 2 TD
- RecOtto Tia 6 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 168 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:27USU +17%
Otto Tia 41 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Tanner Cragun Kick)
- Q1 5:28USU +7%
Tanner Cragun 32 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 1:06USU +7%
Will Monney 16 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Tanner Cragun Kick)
- Q2 8:54USU +7%
Josh Sterzer 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick)
- Q1 5:28USU +5%
Tylan Hines run for 1 yd to the HAW 26
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Utah State?
Hawai'i 10, Utah State 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HAW, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HAW | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 309 | Total yards | 580 |
| 262 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 47 | Rushing yards | 321 |
| 15 | First downs | 27 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 24/36 | Comp/Att | 22/32 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 7.6 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 12-80 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 30:18 | Possession | 29:42 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:15 USU punt on 4th & 1 at USU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:13USUTanner Cragun 37 Yd Field Goal 10–55
- Q4 5:42HAWDekel Crowdus 44 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)10–52
- Q4 8:35USUDerrick Jameson 21 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick)3–52
- Q3 0:57USUJosh Sterzer 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick)3–45
- Q3 6:18USURahsul Faison 37 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick)3–38
- Q3 9:38USURahsul Faison 37 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick)3–31
- Q2 3:35HAWKansei Matsuzawa 40 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 8:54USUJosh Sterzer 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick)0–24
- Q1 1:06USUWill Monney 16 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Tanner Cragun Kick)0–17
- Q1 5:28USUTanner Cragun 32 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 13:27USUOtto Tia 41 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Tanner Cragun Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1170, HAW Elo 1265 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU +1.4 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #94 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Utah State leads 13–7 · 15% have been one-possession games
| HAW | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.4 (#99) | CORE overall | -11.9 (#105) |
| -9 / +1 | offense / defense | +1 / +12 |
| 1.78 | points / drive | 2.47 |
| 2.82 | allowed / drive | 3.00 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +13 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →