Arkansas State vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsTXST
- Q4 3:42TXSTMason Shipley 29 Yd Field Goal 9–41
- Q4 14:56TXSTJoey Hobert 8 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)9–38
- Q3 8:08TXSTJoey Hobert 30 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)9–31
- Q3 13:53TXSTJaden Williams 25 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)9–24
- Q2 0:15ARSTClune Van Andel 25 Yd Field Goal 9–17
- Q2 6:37TXSTMason Shipley 39 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 11:10ARSTClune Van Andel 40 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q1 1:12TXSTJordan McCloud 5 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)3–14
- Q1 10:54TXSTKole Wilson 53 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)3–7
- Q1 13:13ARSTClune Van Andel 41 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJaylen Raynor 24/38, 207 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJa'Quez Cross 9 CAR, 117 YDS
- RecJa'Quez Cross 6 REC, 48 YDS
- PassJordan McCloud 25/30, 325 YDS, 4 TD
- RushIsmail Mahdi 17 CAR, 164 YDS
- RecJoey Hobert 10 REC, 101 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 823 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:54TXST +13%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 53 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
- Q1 1:12TXST +9%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
- Q3 13:53TXST +6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 25 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
- Q1 13:13ARST +6%
Clune Van Andel 41 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Texas State?
Arkansas State 9, Texas State 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
| ARST | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 591 |
| 213 | Passing yards | 325 |
| 171 | Rushing yards | 266 |
| 20 | First downs | 28 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 25/39 | Comp/Att | 25/30 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 6.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 7-48 |
| 24:56 | Possession | 35:04 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:20 ARST punt on 4th & 16 at TXST 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:42TXSTMason Shipley 29 Yd Field Goal 9–41
- Q4 14:56TXSTJoey Hobert 8 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)9–38
- Q3 8:08TXSTJoey Hobert 30 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)9–31
- Q3 13:53TXSTJaden Williams 25 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)9–24
- Q2 0:15ARSTClune Van Andel 25 Yd Field Goal 9–17
- Q2 6:37TXSTMason Shipley 39 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 11:10ARSTClune Van Andel 40 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q1 1:12TXSTJordan McCloud 5 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)3–14
- Q1 10:54TXSTKole Wilson 53 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)3–7
- Q1 13:13ARSTClune Van Andel 41 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1584, ARST Elo 1317 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -13.1 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArkansas State leads 8–5 · 31% have been one-possession games
| ARST | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.0 (#113) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#49) |
| -1 / +13 | offense / defense | +6 / +2 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 3.12 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.00 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →