Vanderbilt vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VANTeam statsWAKE
- Q4 2:24WAKEMatthew Dennis 20 Yd Field Goal 20–36
- Q4 9:08VANLondon Humphreys 30 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–33
- Q4 11:39WAKEKe'Shawn Williams 24 Yd pass from Mitch Griffis (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–33
- Q3 12:36WAKEMatthew Dennis 44 Yd Field Goal 14–27
- Q2 0:50WAKEBrendon Harris 31 Yd Fumble Return (Matthew Dennis Kick)14–24
- Q2 1:42VANWill Sheppard 10 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Jacob Borcila Kick)14–17
- Q2 3:22WAKETate Carney 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–17
- Q2 10:03VANWill Sheppard 11 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Jacob Borcila Kick)7–10
- Q2 12:55WAKEJahmal Banks 7 Yd pass from Mitch Griffis (Matthew Dennis Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:50WAKEMatthew Dennis 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassAJ Swann 26/39, 314 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushPatrick Smith 10 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecLondon Humphreys 4 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMitch Griffis 17/26, 196 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDemond Claiborne 26 CAR, 165 YDS
- RecKe'Shawn Williams 5 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,179 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:42VAN +13%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 10 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
- Q2 10:03VAN +11%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 11 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
- Q2 3:22WAKE +11%
Tate Carney run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
- Q2 12:55WAKE +10%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
- Q2 0:50WAKE +9%
Brendon Harris 31 Yd Fumble Return (Matthew Dennis Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Vanderbilt vs. Wake Forest?
Vanderbilt 20, Wake Forest 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAKE) was correct.
| VAN | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 423 | Total yards | 484 |
| 314 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 109 | Rushing yards | 288 |
| 21 | First downs | 29 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 10-15 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 26/39 | Comp/Att | 17/26 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-42 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 25:43 | Possession | 34:17 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:29 VAN punt on 4th & 5 at WAKE 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.31 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:24WAKEMatthew Dennis 20 Yd Field Goal 20–36
- Q4 9:08VANLondon Humphreys 30 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–33
- Q4 11:39WAKEKe'Shawn Williams 24 Yd pass from Mitch Griffis (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–33
- Q3 12:36WAKEMatthew Dennis 44 Yd Field Goal 14–27
- Q2 0:50WAKEBrendon Harris 31 Yd Fumble Return (Matthew Dennis Kick)14–24
- Q2 1:42VANWill Sheppard 10 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Jacob Borcila Kick)14–17
- Q2 3:22WAKETate Carney 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–17
- Q2 10:03VANWill Sheppard 11 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Jacob Borcila Kick)7–10
- Q2 12:55WAKEJahmal Banks 7 Yd pass from Mitch Griffis (Matthew Dennis Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:50WAKEMatthew Dennis 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WAKE Elo 1608, VAN Elo 1327 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WAKE -13.6 (82% to win) — 4.1 points clear of WAKE's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesVanderbilt leads 10–8 · Wake Forest has won 2 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| VAN | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.1 (#117) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#98) |
| -10 / +7 | offense / defense | -4 / +5 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 1.39 |
| 2.93 | allowed / drive | 2.37 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →