Taylor vs. Butler: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Taylor

0013

Butler0-1

▸0041

Final

Butler Bowl

	1	2	3	4	T
TAYL	0	7	0	6	13
BUTL	14	3	21	3	41

TAYLTeam statsBUTL

325Total yards439

169Pass185

156Rush254

13First downs16

4-153rd down3-13

1Turnovers0

32:18Possession27:42

Scoring plays

• Q4 9:01TAYLDakohta Sonnichsen 75 Yd pass from Stephen Ellis (Isaac Hoke PAT failed)13–41
• Q4 9:13BUTLLuka Zurak 20 Yd Field Goal 7–41
• Q3 3:18BUTLHarry Ochs 0 Yd Fumble Return (Luka Zurak Kick)7–38
• Q3 9:19BUTLJyran Mitchell 63 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)7–31
• Q3 10:43BUTLLuke Wooten 36 Yd pass from Bret Bushka (Luka Zurak Kick)7–24
• Q2 3:15TAYLJa Thomas 24 Yd pass from Damon Hockett (Isaac Hoke Kick)7–17
• Q2 8:57BUTLLuka Zurak 23 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q1 5:36BUTLJyran Mitchell 60 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:00BUTLJyran Mitchell 1 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• BUTL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 38% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

BUTL 100%50%TAYL 100%

Kickoff141 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

BUTL (top)TAYL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BUTL 100%

Leaders

Taylor

• PassDamon Hockett 10/19, 94 YDS, 1 TD
• RushStephen Ellis 6 CAR, 42 YDS
• RecDakohta Sonnichsen 1 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD

Butler

• PassBret Bushka 13/22, 185 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJyran Mitchell 12 CAR, 178 YDS, 3 TD
• RecEthan Loss 4 REC, 79 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

124

Points / snap

0.44

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

BUTL up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 341 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

BUTL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WGeorgia Southern vs The Citadel34-0WTemple vs Norfolk State41-11WLouisiana vs UAB41-21WLamar vs Lincoln (CA)38-0WUtah vs Arizona State55-3

Fourth downs

23 calls

BUTL gave up 3.0 points to the model on fourth down.TAYL 8/10 · BUTL 6/10 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Taylor vs. Butler?

Taylor 13, Butler 41.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (BUTL) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

TAYL

BUTL

33%

Success rate

38%

0.47

EPA / pass

0.22

-0.11

EPA / rush

0.45

33%

Early-down success

40%

41%

Pass success

30%

29%

Rush success

46%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

34%

Pass rate

45%

6.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.8

TAYL

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

BUTL

5.8 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

TAYL		BUTL
325	Total yards	439
169	Passing yards	185
156	Rushing yards	254
13	First downs	16
4-15	3rd down	3-13
2-5	4th down	3-3
11/20	Comp/Att	14/23
8.5	Yards per pass	8.0
3.6	Yards per rush	7.3
1	Turnovers	0
2-20	Penalties	6-44
32:18	Possession	27:42

Fourth downs

23 calls

TAYL

8/10 with the model

−1.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

BUTL

6/10 with the model

−3.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 2:02 BUTL punt on 4th & 1 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.57 points.

Every call, priced (23)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

TAYL 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →BUTL 7/12 scoring drives

BUTLTD5 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1

TAYLPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1

BUTLPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 31Q1

TAYLDOWNS7 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q1

BUTLTD1 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1

TAYLPUNT7 pl, 39 yds· own 22Q1

BUTLFG15 pl, 75 yds· own 20Q1

TAYLTD10 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q2

BUTLPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 41Q2

TAYLPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2

BUTLPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 36Q2

TAYLEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 14Q2

TAYLDOWNS6 pl, 19 yds· own 20Q3

BUTLTD3 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q3

TAYLPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3

BUTLTD1 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q3

TAYLPUNT6 pl, 8 yds· own 18Q3

BUTLTD6 pl, 12 yds· own 33Q3

TAYLPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 17Q3

BUTLFG15 pl, 69 yds· own 28Q3

TAYLTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

BUTLPUNT4 pl, 26 yds· own 31Q4

TAYLDOWNS12 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q4

BUTLEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 43Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 9:01TAYLDakohta Sonnichsen 75 Yd pass from Stephen Ellis (Isaac Hoke PAT failed)13–41
• Q4 9:13BUTLLuka Zurak 20 Yd Field Goal 7–41
• Q3 3:18BUTLHarry Ochs 0 Yd Fumble Return (Luka Zurak Kick)7–38
• Q3 9:19BUTLJyran Mitchell 63 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)7–31
• Q3 10:43BUTLLuke Wooten 36 Yd pass from Bret Bushka (Luka Zurak Kick)7–24
• Q2 3:15TAYLJa Thomas 24 Yd pass from Damon Hockett (Isaac Hoke Kick)7–17
• Q2 8:57BUTLLuka Zurak 23 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q1 5:36BUTLJyran Mitchell 60 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:00BUTLJyran Mitchell 1 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →