San José State vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsUSC
- Q4 5:08SJSUNick Nash 2 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)28–56
- Q4 6:53USCMiller Moss 4 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)21–56
- Q4 12:28USCBrenden Rice 12 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)21–49
- Q3 1:34USCZachariah Branch 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Denis Lynch Kick)21–42
- Q3 1:50SJSUNick Nash 32 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)21–35
- Q3 6:00USCZachariah Branch 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)14–35
- Q3 10:45USCAustin Jones 3 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)14–28
- Q2 0:08SJSUNick Nash 28 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)14–21
- Q2 3:31USCAustin Jones 2 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:38USCTahj Washington 76 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:12SJSUKairee Robinson 1 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:32USCDorian Singer 13 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassChevan Cordeiro 21/38, 198 YDS, 3 TD
- RushQuali Conley 6 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecNick Nash 6 REC, 89 YDS, 3 TD
- PassCaleb Williams 18/25, 278 YDS, 4 TD
- RushAustin Jones 6 CAR, 54 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTahj Washington 2 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. USC?
San José State 28, USC 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| SJSU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 396 | Total yards | 501 |
| 198 | Passing yards | 341 |
| 198 | Rushing yards | 160 |
| 23 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 21/39 | Comp/Att | 24/35 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 7.3 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-21 | Penalties | 8-57 |
| 30:42 | Possession | 29:18 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:08SJSUNick Nash 2 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)28–56
- Q4 6:53USCMiller Moss 4 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)21–56
- Q4 12:28USCBrenden Rice 12 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)21–49
- Q3 1:34USCZachariah Branch 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Denis Lynch Kick)21–42
- Q3 1:50SJSUNick Nash 32 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)21–35
- Q3 6:00USCZachariah Branch 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)14–35
- Q3 10:45USCAustin Jones 3 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)14–28
- Q2 0:08SJSUNick Nash 28 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)14–21
- Q2 3:31USCAustin Jones 2 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:38USCTahj Washington 76 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:12SJSUKairee Robinson 1 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:32USCDorian Singer 13 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1663, SJSU Elo 1462 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -10.4 (76% to win) — 20.1 points clear of SJSU's market line of -30.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SJSU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.5 (#53) | CORE overall | +13.8 (#27) |
| +4 / +2 | offense / defense | +20 / +6 |
| 2.51 | points / drive | 3.35 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 2.57 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →