North American vs. Incarnate Word: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

North American0-1

Incarnate Word0-1

▸

Final

Gayle and Tom Benson Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	0	0	3	3
INCA	28	14	14	7	63

NORTTeam statsINCA

12Total yards531

2Pass281

10Rush250

3First downs26

1-153rd down6-9

2Turnovers2

36:05Possession23:55

Q4 3:40INCANick Meehan 1 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)3–63
Q4 8:22NORTCristobal Salgado 33 Yd Field Goal 3–56
Q3 7:45INCAAJ Harris 43 Yd Interception Return (Mason Lawler Kick)0–56
Q3 9:38INCADekalon Taylor 24 Yd pass from Richard Torres (Mason Lawler Kick)0–49
Q2 4:45INCAJarrell Wiley 14 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)0–42
Q2 10:23INCACJ Hardy 1 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Mason Lawler Kick)0–35
Q1 5:09INCATimothy Carter 2 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)0–28
Q1 8:36INCAZach Calzada 2 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)0–21
Q1 11:30INCARonald Wilson 35 Yd Interception Return (Mason Lawler Kick)0–14
Q1 12:22INCACJ Hardy 31 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Mason Lawler Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and INCA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.6 vs 3rd & 4.4

Kickoff128 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

INCA (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: INCA 100%

North American

PassOscar Ozuna 5/5, 9 YDS
RushXander Armani Williams 3 CAR, 17 YDS
RecColbi Clark 5 REC, 22 YDS

Incarnate Word

PassZach Calzada 11/16, 193 YDS, 2 TD
RushJarrell Wiley 7 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
RecCJ Hardy 4 REC, 72 YDS, 2 TD

30.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

111

Points / snap

0.59

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

INCA up 56 entering the 4th quarter. Across 97 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

INCA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEastern Michigan vs South Alabama59-10 WArkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff70-0 WUConn vs Merrimack63-17 WSan José State vs Cal Poly59-3 WAlabama vs Western Kentucky63-0

FAQ

What was the final score of North American vs. Incarnate Word?

North American 3, Incarnate Word 63.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (INCA) was correct.

NORT

INCA

12%

Success rate

61%

-0.86

EPA / pass

0.39

-0.27

EPA / rush

0.38

Early-down success

62%

18%

Pass success

55%

Rush success

66%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

46%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

56%

Pass rate

48%

10.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.4

NORT

10.6 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

INCA

4.4 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

NORT		INCA
12	Total yards	531
2	Passing yards	281
10	Rushing yards	250
3	First downs	26
1-15	3rd down	6-9
0-0	4th down	2-3
15/24	Comp/Att	18/29
0.1	Yards per pass	9.7
0.4	Yards per rush	7.4
2	Turnovers	2
6-36	Penalties	7-68
36:05	Possession	23:55

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

NORTTeam statsINCA

Scoring plays

What the numbers say

Win probability

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of North American vs. Incarnate Word?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

North American vs. Incarnate Word: Final Score & Recap

NORTTeam statsINCA

What the numbers say

What was the final score of North American vs. Incarnate Word?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?