Mercer vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Mercer

07

Ole Miss

▸0073

Final

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MERC	7	0	0	0	7
MISS	28	10	28	7	73

MERCTeam statsMISS

235Total yards667

142Pass524

93Rush143

15First downs32

3-143rd down8-11

3Turnovers1

35:10Possession24:50

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:21MISSMatt Jones 1 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick)7–73
• Q3 3:09MISSCayden Lee 34 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Caden Davis Kick)7–66
• Q3 5:27MISSUlysses Bentley IV 6 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Caden Costa Kick)7–59
• Q3 9:45MISSTre Harris 16 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)7–52
• Q3 13:07MISSJordan Watkins 70 Yd Punt Return (Caden Costa Kick)7–45
• Q2 0:32MISSQuinshon Judkins 3 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)7–38
• Q2 6:25MISSCaden Davis 31 Yd Field Goal 7–31
• Q1 5:45MISSQuinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick)7–28
• Q1 11:45MISSTre Harris 20 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)7–21
• Q1 12:26MISSTre Harris 28 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Costa Kick)7–14
• Q1 13:53MERCCarter Peevy 75 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)7–7
• Q1 14:05MISSTre Harris 38 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MISS −34.5

Against the number

MISS covered

line MISS −34.5

What the numbers say

• MERC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MISS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 6.2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MISS 100%50%MERC 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MISS (top)MERC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MISS 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MISS −34.5

Closing total

59.0

Model line

—

Actual result

MERC 7 – 73 MISS

Leaders

Mercer

• PassCarter Peevy 16/29, 138 YDS, 1 INT
• RushCarter Peevy 7 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDevron Harper 4 REC, 47 YDS

Ole Miss

• PassJaxson Dart 18/23, 334 YDS, 4 TD
• RushQuinshon Judkins 13 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD
• RecTre' Harris 6 REC, 133 YDS, 4 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.3sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

148

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MISS up 59 entering the 4th quarter. Across 65 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MISS went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCoastal Carolina vs Duquesne66-7WArkansas-Pine Bluff vs Little Rock59-0WNicholls vs Mississippi Valley State66-0WUCLA vs North Carolina Central59-7WUT Martin vs Houston Christian66-7

Fourth downs

12 calls

MERC gave up 0.4 points to the model on fourth down.MERC 8/9 · MISS 3/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Mercer vs. Ole Miss?

Mercer 7, Ole Miss 73.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MERC

MISS

38%

Success rate

60%

-0.02

EPA / pass

0.95

-0.13

EPA / rush

0.26

40%

Early-down success

58%

42%

Pass success

63%

34%

Rush success

56%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

23%

34%

Stuffed rush rate

29%

51%

Pass rate

56%

9.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.2

MERC

9.4 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

MISS

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

77 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MERC		MISS
235	Total yards	667
142	Passing yards	524
93	Rushing yards	143
15	First downs	32
3-14	3rd down	8-11
1-2	4th down	1-1
17/31	Comp/Att	29/41
4.6	Yards per pass	12.8
2.5	Yards per rush	4.3
3	Turnovers	1
7-50	Penalties	7-65
35:10	Possession	24:50

Fourth downs

12 calls

MERC

8/9 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

MISS

3/3 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q4 8:46 MERC go for it on 4th & 10 at MISS 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.37 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MERC 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MISS 10/12 scoring drives

MISSTD3 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1

MERCTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

MISSTD5 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1

MISSTD2 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q1

MERCPUNT7 pl, 19 yds· own 17Q1

MISSTD7 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q1

MERCPUNT5 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

MISSFUM5 pl, 60 yds· own 33Q1

MERCFUM14 pl, 26 yds· own 7Q1

MISSFG9 pl, 20 yds· opp 33Q2

MERCPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q2

MISSTD10 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q2

MERCEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

MERCTD5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3

MERCINT4 pl, 9 yds· own 31Q3

MISSTD3 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q3

MERCPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3

MISSTD10 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3

MERCPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3

MISSTD6 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q3

MERCPUNT10 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q3

MISSPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q4

MERCDOWNS4 pl, 0 yds· opp 35Q4

MISSTD12 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4

MERCEND5 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:21MISSMatt Jones 1 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick)7–73
• Q3 3:09MISSCayden Lee 34 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Caden Davis Kick)7–66
• Q3 5:27MISSUlysses Bentley IV 6 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Caden Costa Kick)7–59
• Q3 9:45MISSTre Harris 16 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)7–52
• Q3 13:07MISSJordan Watkins 70 Yd Punt Return (Caden Costa Kick)7–45
• Q2 0:32MISSQuinshon Judkins 3 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)7–38
• Q2 6:25MISSCaden Davis 31 Yd Field Goal 7–31
• Q1 5:45MISSQuinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick)7–28
• Q1 11:45MISSTre Harris 20 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)7–21
• Q1 12:26MISSTre Harris 28 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Costa Kick)7–14
• Q1 13:53MERCCarter Peevy 75 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)7–7
• Q1 14:05MISSTre Harris 38 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →