Massachusetts vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MASSTeam statsPSU
- Q4 8:28PSUBeau Pribula 31 Yd Run (Sander Sahaydak Kick)0–63
- Q4 13:37PSUTrey Potts 2 Yd Run (Sander Sahaydak Kick)0–56
- Q3 3:57PSUDaequan Hardy 68 Yd Punt Return (Sander Sahaydak Kick)0–49
- Q3 5:12PSUTheo Johnson 18 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)0–42
- Q3 11:29PSUTheo Johnson 30 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)0–35
- Q2 1:01PSUTyler Warren 7 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)0–28
- Q2 6:20PSUKaytron Allen 9 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)0–21
- Q2 12:35PSUDrew Allar 1 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:17PSUDaequan Hardy 56 Yd Punt Return (Alex Felkins Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MASS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 3.9
- PassTaisun Phommachanh 6/14, 25 YDS
- RushKay'Ron Lynch-Adams 14 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecGeorge Johnson III 2 REC, 24 YDS
- PassDrew Allar 16/23, 162 YDS, 3 TD
- RushNicholas Singleton 15 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecTheo Johnson 4 REC, 66 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPSU up 49 entering the 4th quarter. Across 71 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Penn State?
Massachusetts 0, Penn State 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
| MASS | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 109 | Total yards | 408 |
| 45 | Passing yards | 162 |
| 64 | Rushing yards | 246 |
| 9 | First downs | 28 |
| 5-18 | 3rd down | 7-9 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 9/23 | Comp/Att | 16/23 |
| 2.0 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-81 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 32:58 | Possession | 27:02 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:50 MASS punt on 4th & 4 at PSU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:28PSUBeau Pribula 31 Yd Run (Sander Sahaydak Kick)0–63
- Q4 13:37PSUTrey Potts 2 Yd Run (Sander Sahaydak Kick)0–56
- Q3 3:57PSUDaequan Hardy 68 Yd Punt Return (Sander Sahaydak Kick)0–49
- Q3 5:12PSUTheo Johnson 18 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)0–42
- Q3 11:29PSUTheo Johnson 30 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)0–35
- Q2 1:01PSUTyler Warren 7 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)0–28
- Q2 6:20PSUKaytron Allen 9 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)0–21
- Q2 12:35PSUDrew Allar 1 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:17PSUDaequan Hardy 56 Yd Punt Return (Alex Felkins Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 1943, MASS Elo 993 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU -40.4 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MASS | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.3 (#120) | CORE overall | +21.5 (#11) |
| -1 / +17 | offense / defense | +6 / -15 |
| 1.54 | points / drive | 2.86 |
| 3.24 | allowed / drive | 1.18 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →