Gardner-Webb vs. Tennessee State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Gardner-Webb0-1

0025

Tennessee State0-1

▸0027

Final

Nissan StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
GARD	7	10	2	6	25
TENN	7	7	7	6	27

GARDTeam statsTENN

364Total yards341

219Pass221

145Rush120

18First downs17

5-223rd down7-20

0Turnovers2

28:52Possession31:08

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:09TENNJames Lowery 50 Yd Field Goal 25–27
• Q4 4:50GARDNarii Gaither 16 Yd pass from Matthew Caldwell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–24
• Q4 6:32TENNJames Lowery 49 Yd Field Goal 21–24
• Q3 5:21GARDTeam Safety19–21
• Q3 6:40TENNJalen Rouse 7 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)17–21
• Q2 0:00GARDJay Billingsley 48 Yd Field Goal 17–14
• Q2 1:39TENNDa'Shon Davis 55 Yd pass from Draylen Ellis (James Lowery Kick)14–14
• Q2 9:51GARDDarius Hough 28 Yd pass from Matthew Caldwell (Jay Billingsley Kick)14–7
• Q1 2:16TENNDeveon Bryant 24 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)7–7
• Q1 10:37GARDNarii Gaither 1 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TENN 100%50%GARD 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

TENN (top)GARD (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TENN 100%

Leaders

Gardner-Webb

• PassMatthew Caldwell 20/49, 219 YDS, 2 TD
• RushNarii Gaither 17 CAR, 152 YDS, 1 TD
• RecBrennan McGuire 3 REC, 59 YDS

Tennessee State

• PassDraylen Ellis 16/28, 154 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushDeveon Bryant 7 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDa'Shon Davis 3 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

21.4sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

168

Points / snap

0.31

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TENN up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,934 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

57%

TENN went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WFlorida International vs Maine14-12WLehigh vs Merrimack27-21WOklahoma State vs Arizona State27-15LNorthern Illinois vs Tulsa14-22WElon vs Monmouth28-26

Fourth downs

29 calls

TENN gave up 2.9 points to the model on fourth down.GARD 10/15 · TENN 5/12 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Gardner-Webb vs. Tennessee State?

Gardner-Webb 25, Tennessee State 27.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

GARD

TENN

36%

Success rate

31%

-0.01

EPA / pass

-0.04

0.03

EPA / rush

0.07

39%

Early-down success

30%

33%

Pass success

31%

39%

Rush success

31%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

9%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

19%

62%

Pass rate

61%

6.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.4

GARD

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

87 scrimmage snaps

TENN

8.4 yards to go on 3rd down

81 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

GARD		TENN
364	Total yards	341
219	Passing yards	221
145	Rushing yards	120
18	First downs	17
5-22	3rd down	7-20
2-4	4th down	0-0
20/50	Comp/Att	21/45
4.4	Yards per pass	4.9
4.1	Yards per rush	3.4
0	Turnovers	2
4-45	Penalties	11-73
28:52	Possession	31:08

Fourth downs

29 calls

GARD

10/15 with the model

−1.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

TENN

5/12 with the model

−2.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 12:05 TENN punt on 4th & 1 at TENN 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.

Every call, priced (29)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

GARD 4/19 scoring drives← own end zone →TENN 6/19 scoring drives

TENNPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1

GARDTD6 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q1

TENNFUM8 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q1

GARDDOWNS4 pl, 3 yds· opp 42Q1

TENNPUNT6 pl, 25 yds· own 39Q1

GARDPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 2Q1

TENNTD4 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q1

GARDMISS5 pl, 58 yds· own 30Q1

GARDFG8 pl, 42 yds· own 27Q2

TENNPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q2

GARDPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 34Q2

TENNPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 11Q2

GARDTD4 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q2

TENNPUNT7 pl, 23 yds· own 33Q2

GARDPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 10Q2

TENNPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 47Q2

GARDUncateg6 pl, 15 yds· own 19Q2

TENNTD3 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q2

TENNTD1 pl, 7 yds· opp 7Q3

TENNSAF1 pl, 0 yds· own 2Q3

GARDMISS5 pl, 44 yds· own 36Q3

TENNPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q3

GARDPUNT5 pl, 28 yds· own 31Q3

TENNPUNT5 pl, 29 yds· own 9Q3

GARDDOWNS5 pl, -28 yds· own 35Q3

GARDPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 33Q3

TENNPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· opp 49Q3

GARDPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 10Q3

TENNPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 35Q4

GARDPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 12Q4

TENNPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 42Q4

GARDPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q4

TENNFG10 pl, 35 yds· own 33Q4

GARDTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

TENNINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q4

GARDPUNT4 pl, -5 yds· midfieldQ4

TENNFG11 pl, 62 yds· own 5Q4

GARDUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 36Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:09TENNJames Lowery 50 Yd Field Goal 25–27
• Q4 4:50GARDNarii Gaither 16 Yd pass from Matthew Caldwell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–24
• Q4 6:32TENNJames Lowery 49 Yd Field Goal 21–24
• Q3 5:21GARDTeam Safety19–21
• Q3 6:40TENNJalen Rouse 7 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)17–21
• Q2 0:00GARDJay Billingsley 48 Yd Field Goal 17–14
• Q2 1:39TENNDa'Shon Davis 55 Yd pass from Draylen Ellis (James Lowery Kick)14–14
• Q2 9:51GARDDarius Hough 28 Yd pass from Matthew Caldwell (Jay Billingsley Kick)14–7
• Q1 2:16TENNDeveon Bryant 24 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)7–7
• Q1 10:37GARDNarii Gaither 1 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →