California vs. Washington: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CALTeam statsWASH
- Q4 3:40CALAshton Stredick 3 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)32–59
- Q4 7:08WASHSam Adams II 9 Yd Run (Addison Shrock Kick)25–59
- Q4 10:48CALTrond Grizzell 20 Yd pass from Sam Jackson V (Michael Luckhurst PAT failed)25–52
- Q3 1:49CALJaydn Ott 2 Yd Run (Michael Luckhurst Kick)19–52
- Q3 11:28WASHRome Odunze 13 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)12–52
- Q2 0:44WASHRome Odunze 35 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)12–45
- Q2 4:08WASHJa'Lynn Polk 24 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)12–38
- Q2 9:00CALTaj Davis 24 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–31
- Q2 11:27WASHDillon Johnson 3 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)6–31
- Q1 0:38WASHGrady Gross 41 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q1 2:19WASHJa'Lynn Polk 8 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)6–21
- Q1 5:52CALJeremiah Hunter 7 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Michael Luckhurst PAT failed)6–14
- Q1 9:13WASHRome Odunze 83 Yd Punt Return (Grady Gross Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:37WASHEdefuan Ulofoshio 45 Yd Interception Return (Grady Gross Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBen Finley 17/32, 207 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushJaydn Ott 14 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrond Grizzell 4 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMichael Penix Jr. 19/25, 304 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushDillon Johnson 10 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJa'Lynn Polk 8 REC, 127 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWASH up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:37WASH +9%
Ben Finley pass intercepted for a TD Edefuan Ulofoshio return for 45 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. Washington?
California 32, Washington 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
| CAL | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 502 | Total yards | 529 |
| 363 | Passing yards | 389 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 28 | First downs | 23 |
| 10-17 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 27/46 | Comp/Att | 23/32 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 12.2 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 9-83 |
| 29:50 | Possession | 30:10 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:40CALAshton Stredick 3 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)32–59
- Q4 7:08WASHSam Adams II 9 Yd Run (Addison Shrock Kick)25–59
- Q4 10:48CALTrond Grizzell 20 Yd pass from Sam Jackson V (Michael Luckhurst PAT failed)25–52
- Q3 1:49CALJaydn Ott 2 Yd Run (Michael Luckhurst Kick)19–52
- Q3 11:28WASHRome Odunze 13 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)12–52
- Q2 0:44WASHRome Odunze 35 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)12–45
- Q2 4:08WASHJa'Lynn Polk 24 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)12–38
- Q2 9:00CALTaj Davis 24 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–31
- Q2 11:27WASHDillon Johnson 3 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)6–31
- Q1 0:38WASHGrady Gross 41 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q1 2:19WASHJa'Lynn Polk 8 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)6–21
- Q1 5:52CALJeremiah Hunter 7 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Michael Luckhurst PAT failed)6–14
- Q1 9:13WASHRome Odunze 83 Yd Punt Return (Grady Gross Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:37WASHEdefuan Ulofoshio 45 Yd Interception Return (Grady Gross Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WASH Elo 1888, CAL Elo 1551 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WASH -15.9 (85% to win) — 4.6 points clear of CAL's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWashington leads 55–41–3 · Washington has won 3 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| CAL | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.6 (#64) | CORE overall | +24.4 (#9) |
| -1 / +0 | offense / defense | +16 / -8 |
| 2.20 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 2.53 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +17 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →