Cal Poly vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Cal Poly

03

San José State0-2

▸0059

Final

CEFCU Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
CAL	0	3	0	0	3
SJSU	17	21	21	0	59

CAL Team statsSJSU

169Total yards472

74Pass205

95Rush267

11First downs24

2-143rd down5-11

3Turnovers0

24:30Possession35:30

Scoring plays

• Q3 2:06SJSUMatthew Coleman 75 Yd Punt Return (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)3–59
• Q3 4:20SJSUKairee Robinson 8 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)3–52
• Q3 12:50SJSUKairee Robinson 32 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)3–45
• Q2 0:00CAL Noah Serna 24 Yd Field Goal 3–38
• Q2 2:31SJSUCharles Ross 24 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)0–38
• Q2 6:18SJSUChevan Cordeiro 15 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)0–31
• Q2 13:00SJSUQuali Conley 10 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)0–24
• Q1 6:14SJSUQuali Conley 10 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)0–17
• Q1 9:42SJSUSam Olson 27 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)0–10
• Q1 11:06SJSUKyler Halvorsen 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

SJSU −23

Against the number

SJSU covered

line SJSU −23

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SJSU 100%50%CAL 100%

Kickoff143 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SJSU (top)CAL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SJSU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SJSU −23

Closing total

58.0

Model line

—

Actual result

CAL 3 – 59 SJSU

Leaders

Cal Poly

• PassSam Huard 11/17, 66 YDS, 1 INT
• RushMark Biggins 9 CAR, 48 YDS
• RecPaul Holyfield Jr. 3 REC, 17 YDS

San José State

• PassChevan Cordeiro 15/21, 205 YDS, 2 TD
• RushKairee Robinson 16 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD
• RecCharles Ross 2 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

129

Points / snap

0.48

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SJSU up 56 entering the 4th quarter. Across 96 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SJSU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEastern Michigan vs South Alabama59-10WArkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff70-0WUConn vs Merrimack63-17WIncarnate Word vs North American University63-3WAlabama vs Western Kentucky63-0

Fourth downs

16 calls

CAL gave up 1.5 points to the model on fourth down.CAL 5/8 · SJSU 4/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Cal Poly vs. San José State?

Cal Poly 3, San José State 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SJSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

CAL

SJSU

25%

Success rate

52%

-0.39

EPA / pass

0.48

-0.16

EPA / rush

0.43

26%

Early-down success

53%

19%

Pass success

48%

30%

Rush success

55%

0%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

33%

Stuffed rush rate

25%

45%

Pass rate

36%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.5

CAL

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

SJSU

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

CAL		SJSU
169	Total yards	472
74	Passing yards	205
95	Rushing yards	267
11	First downs	24
2-14	3rd down	5-11
2-4	4th down	1-2
13/24	Comp/Att	15/23
3.1	Yards per pass	8.9
2.9	Yards per rush	6.2
3	Turnovers	0
5-50	Penalties	6-55
24:30	Possession	35:30

Fourth downs

16 calls

CAL

5/8 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

SJSU

4/6 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 0:00 CAL punt on 4th & 1 at CAL 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

CAL 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →SJSU 8/12 scoring drives

SJSUFG7 pl, 8 yds· opp 17Q1

CAL FUM3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

SJSUTD2 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q1

CAL PUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1

SJSUTD4 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q1

CAL INT6 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1

SJSUTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

CAL PUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q2

SJSUTD7 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q2

SJSUTD7 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q2

CAL FG10 pl, 58 yds· own 36Q2

SJSUTD4 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ3

CAL PUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 24Q3

SJSUTD13 pl, 96 yds· own 4Q3

CAL TD3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3

CAL PUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3

SJSUPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 15Q4

CAL PUNT4 pl, 5 yds· own 47Q4

SJSUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 5Q4

CAL DOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· opp 48Q4

SJSUDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 43Q4

CAL DOWNS13 pl, 33 yds· opp 49Q4

SJSUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 16Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 2:06SJSUMatthew Coleman 75 Yd Punt Return (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)3–59
• Q3 4:20SJSUKairee Robinson 8 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)3–52
• Q3 12:50SJSUKairee Robinson 32 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)3–45
• Q2 0:00CAL Noah Serna 24 Yd Field Goal 3–38
• Q2 2:31SJSUCharles Ross 24 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)0–38
• Q2 6:18SJSUChevan Cordeiro 15 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)0–31
• Q2 13:00SJSUQuali Conley 10 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)0–24
• Q1 6:14SJSUQuali Conley 10 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)0–17
• Q1 9:42SJSUSam Olson 27 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)0–10
• Q1 11:06SJSUKyler Halvorsen 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →