Cal Poly vs. Montana State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Cal Poly0-1
Montana State4-1
▸Final
Bobcat StadiumConference game
CAL Team statsMONT
306Total yards578
233Pass243
73Rush335
15First downs25
1-133rd down2-8
0Turnovers0
31:12Possession28:48
- Q4 7:28MONTAdam Jones 49 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–59
- Q4 11:26MONTElijah Elliott 10 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–52
- Q3 3:21MONTSean Chambers 9 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–45
- Q3 6:34CAL Tyrece Fairly-Diyem 23 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna PAT failed)19–38
- Q2 0:28MONTJared White 17 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Brendan Hall Kick)13–38
- Q2 2:31CAL Evan Burkhart 41 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna Kick)13–31
- Q2 9:42MONTBrendan Hall 44 Yd Field Goal 6–31
- Q2 12:49MONTDerryk Snell 12 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Brendan Hall Kick)6–28
- Q1 5:20MONTSean Chambers 64 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)6–21
- Q1 7:27MONTSean Chambers 8 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)6–14
- Q1 9:42CAL Giancarlo Woods 16 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna PAT blocked)6–7
- Q1 12:32MONTTy McCullouch 65 Yd Punt Return (Brendan Hall Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
MONT −39
Against the number
MONT covered
line MONT −39
What the numbers say
- CAL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 30% success rate
Kickoff143 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
MONT (top)CAL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MONT 100%
Closing line
MONT −39
Closing total
60.5
Model line
—
Actual result
CAL 19 – 59 MONT
Cal Poly
- PassSam Huard 19/36, 225 YDS, 3 TD
- RushMark Biggins 10 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecGiancarlo Woods 5 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
Montana State
- PassSean Chambers 7/15, 151 YDS
- RushJared White 14 CAR, 93 YDS
- RecTy McCullouch 4 REC, 119 YDS
30sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
120
Points / snap
0.65
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMONT up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 728 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
MONT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Cal Poly vs. Montana State?
Cal Poly 19, Montana State 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MONT) was correct.
CAL
MONT
30%
Success rate
51%
0.34
EPA / pass
0.50
-0.15
EPA / rush
0.69
35%
Early-down success
55%
35%
Pass success
42%
22%
Rush success
58%
13%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
21%
30%
Stuffed rush rate
9%
64%
Pass rate
42%
9.5
Avg 3rd-down distance
10.5
CAL
9.5 yards to go on 3rd down
63 scrimmage snaps
MONT
10.5 yards to go on 3rd down
57 scrimmage snaps
| CAL | MONT | |
|---|---|---|
| 306 | Total yards | 578 |
| 233 | Passing yards | 243 |
| 73 | Rushing yards | 335 |
| 15 | First downs | 25 |
| 1-13 | 3rd down | 2-8 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/39 | Comp/Att | 14/24 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 10.1 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 9.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 31:12 | Possession | 28:48 |
CAL
10/11 with the model
nothing given up
MONT
4/5 with the model
−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 4:41 MONT punt on 4th & 1 at MONT 21. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishCAL 4/15 scoring drives← own end zone →MONT 8/13 scoring drives
MONTPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 35Q1
CAL TD3 pl, 3 yds· own 13Q1
CAL PUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
CAL TD5 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q1
MONTTD5 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q1
CAL PUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
MONTTD2 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1
CAL PUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
MONTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q1
CAL PUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 24Q1
MONTTD6 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q1
CAL PUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2
MONTFG4 pl, 3 yds· opp 30Q2
CAL PUNT5 pl, 3 yds· own 35Q2
MONTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 12Q2
CAL TD4 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2
MONTTD6 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q2
CAL END1 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q2
CAL MISS10 pl, 64 yds· own 16Q3
MONTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 20Q3
CAL TD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
MONTTD8 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3
CAL PUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3
MONTTD10 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3
CAL PUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4
MONTTD3 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q4
CAL PUNT7 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q4
MONTEND4 pl, 48 yds· own 20Q4
- Q4 7:28MONTAdam Jones 49 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–59
- Q4 11:26MONTElijah Elliott 10 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–52
- Q3 3:21MONTSean Chambers 9 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)19–45
- Q3 6:34CAL Tyrece Fairly-Diyem 23 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna PAT failed)19–38
- Q2 0:28MONTJared White 17 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Brendan Hall Kick)13–38
- Q2 2:31CAL Evan Burkhart 41 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna Kick)13–31
- Q2 9:42MONTBrendan Hall 44 Yd Field Goal 6–31
- Q2 12:49MONTDerryk Snell 12 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Brendan Hall Kick)6–28
- Q1 5:20MONTSean Chambers 64 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)6–21
- Q1 7:27MONTSean Chambers 8 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)6–14
- Q1 9:42CAL Giancarlo Woods 16 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna PAT blocked)6–7
- Q1 12:32MONTTy McCullouch 65 Yd Punt Return (Brendan Hall Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →