South Alabama vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsMSST
- Q4 0:57USAGerald Everett 4 Yd pass from Dallas Davis (Gavin Patterson Kick)21–20
- Q4 12:51USATyreis Thomas 4 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)14–20
- Q3 6:35MSSTWestin Graves 48 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q3 10:13USAJosh Magee 20 Yd pass from Dallas Davis (Gavin Patterson Kick)7–17
- Q2 4:41MSSTWestin Graves 37 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 11:20MSSTBrandon Holloway 7 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)0–14
- Q1 3:19MSSTDeddrick Thomas 4 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Westin Graves Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassDallas Davis 24/34, 285 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTyreis Thomas 10 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJosh Magee 7 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDamian Williams 20/28, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDamian Williams 12 CAR, 93 YDS
- RecBrandon Holloway 5 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSST up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:57USA +81%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
- Q4 0:04USA +79%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 8
- Q4 4:21MSST +28%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 27
- Q4 0:25MSST +28%
Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 4 yds to the SAlab 32
- Q4 1:16USA +26%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the MisSt 4
- Q4 2:08USA +20%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 4 yds to the MisSt 8
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Mississippi State?
South Alabama 21, Mississippi State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MSST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USA | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 379 | Total yards | 382 |
| 285 | Passing yards | 143 |
| 94 | Rushing yards | 239 |
| 19 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 2-9 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/34 | Comp/Att | 20/31 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-57 | Penalties | 5-41 |
| 36:41 | Possession | 23:19 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:30 MSST punt on 4th & 3 at USA 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:57USAGerald Everett 4 Yd pass from Dallas Davis (Gavin Patterson Kick)21–20
- Q4 12:51USATyreis Thomas 4 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)14–20
- Q3 6:35MSSTWestin Graves 48 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q3 10:13USAJosh Magee 20 Yd pass from Dallas Davis (Gavin Patterson Kick)7–17
- Q2 4:41MSSTWestin Graves 37 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 11:20MSSTBrandon Holloway 7 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)0–14
- Q1 3:19MSSTDeddrick Thomas 4 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Westin Graves Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1727, USA Elo 1243 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST -21.8 (92% to win) — 8.2 points clear of USA's market line of -30. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#20 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #1 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →| USA | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.6 (#109) | CORE overall | +0.4 (#61) |
| -4 / +12 | offense / defense | +5 / +4 |
| 2.01 | points / drive | 2.22 |
| 2.33 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →