Kentucky vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsLOU
- Q4 0:12UKAustin MacGinnis 47 Yd Field Goal 41–38
- Q4 7:44LOULamar Jackson 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)38–38
- Q4 14:19UKDorian Baker 35 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)38–31
- Q3 2:43UKAustin MacGinnis 35 Yd Field Goal 31–31
- Q3 9:19LOUJeremy Smith 3 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)28–31
- Q3 10:58UKBenny Snell Jr. 18 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)28–24
- Q2 2:13UKGarrett Johnson 63 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)21–24
- Q2 3:09LOUCole Hikutini 24 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)14–24
- Q2 8:13LOUBlanton Creque 19 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 14:54LOUReggie Bonnafon 18 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:07UKStanley Williams 36 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)14–7
- Q1 12:39UKGarrett Johnson 75 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:57LOULamar Jackson 19 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassStephen Johnson 16/27, 338 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushStephen Johnson 8 CAR, 83 YDS
- RecGarrett Johnson 5 REC, 164 YDS, 2 TD
- PassLamar Jackson 16/25, 281 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushLamar Jackson 25 CAR, 171 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCole Hikutini 7 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:19UK +46%
Dorian Baker 35 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)
- Q4 1:20UK +44%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 29 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST down
- Q4 7:44LOU +41%
Lamar Jackson 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)
- Q4 0:12UK +35%
Austin MacGinnis 47 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 1:45LOU +24%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 10 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Kent Courtney Love
- Q4 9:41UK +22%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. Louisville?
Kentucky 41, Louisville 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UK | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 581 | Total yards | 561 |
| 352 | Passing yards | 281 |
| 229 | Rushing yards | 280 |
| 24 | First downs | 26 |
| 10-18 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/29 | Comp/Att | 16/25 |
| 12.1 | Yards per pass | 11.2 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 4-41 | Penalties | 4-48 |
| 32:30 | Possession | 27:30 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:13 LOU field goal on 4th & 2 at UK 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:12UKAustin MacGinnis 47 Yd Field Goal 41–38
- Q4 7:44LOULamar Jackson 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)38–38
- Q4 14:19UKDorian Baker 35 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)38–31
- Q3 2:43UKAustin MacGinnis 35 Yd Field Goal 31–31
- Q3 9:19LOUJeremy Smith 3 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)28–31
- Q3 10:58UKBenny Snell Jr. 18 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)28–24
- Q2 2:13UKGarrett Johnson 63 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)21–24
- Q2 3:09LOUCole Hikutini 24 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)14–24
- Q2 8:13LOUBlanton Creque 19 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 14:54LOUReggie Bonnafon 18 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:07UKStanley Williams 36 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)14–7
- Q1 12:39UKGarrett Johnson 75 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:57LOULamar Jackson 19 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1950, UK Elo 1465 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -21.8 (92% to win) — 4.7 points clear of UK's market line of -26.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#35 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #3 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #15 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →The series is level at 17–17 · Louisville has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| UK | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.9 (#59) | CORE overall | +30.0 (#5) |
| +6 / +6 | offense / defense | +20 / -10 |
| 2.36 | points / drive | 2.98 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 1.54 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →