Central Michigan vs. Miami (OH): Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CMUTeam statsM-OH
- Q4 13:16M-OHKenny Young 22 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd Kick)17–37
- Q3 8:00M-OHNick Dowd 34 Yd Field Goal 17–30
- Q3 14:43M-OHKenny Young 72 Yd Run (Nick Dowd Kick)17–27
- Q2 0:02CMUBrian Eavey 45 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 9:53M-OHSam Shisso 6 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd Kick)14–20
- Q2 13:16CMUJahray Hayes 1 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)14–13
- Q1 5:05M-OHRyan Smith 12 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd Kick)7–13
- Q1 6:17M-OHJared Murphy 10 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd PAT blocked)7–6
- Q1 9:41CMUJahray Hayes 1 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCooper Rush 21/32, 242 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJahray Hayes 18 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCorey Willis 5 REC, 73 YDS
- PassGus Ragland 13/21, 218 YDS, 4 TD
- RushKenny Young 7 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRokeem Williams 3 REC, 61 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsM-OH up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 14:43M-OH +28%
Kenny Young run for 72 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
- Q2 9:53M-OH +22%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
- Q1 5:05M-OH +20%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
- Q2 13:16CMU +19%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) MIAMI OH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
- Q1 9:41CMU +16%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
- Q1 6:17M-OH +14%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd PAT BLOCKED)
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Miami (OH)?
Central Michigan 17, Miami (OH) 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CMU | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 292 | Total yards | 436 |
| 242 | Passing yards | 218 |
| 50 | Rushing yards | 218 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 21/32 | Comp/Att | 13/21 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 10.4 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 26:21 | Possession | 33:39 |
Costliest call
Q3 14:37 CMU punt on 4th & 1 at CMU 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:16M-OHKenny Young 22 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd Kick)17–37
- Q3 8:00M-OHNick Dowd 34 Yd Field Goal 17–30
- Q3 14:43M-OHKenny Young 72 Yd Run (Nick Dowd Kick)17–27
- Q2 0:02CMUBrian Eavey 45 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 9:53M-OHSam Shisso 6 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd Kick)14–20
- Q2 13:16CMUJahray Hayes 1 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)14–13
- Q1 5:05M-OHRyan Smith 12 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd Kick)7–13
- Q1 6:17M-OHJared Murphy 10 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd PAT blocked)7–6
- Q1 9:41CMUJahray Hayes 1 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (M-OH Elo 1238, CMU Elo 1387 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects M-OH +3.6 (42% to win) — 2.1 points clear of CMU's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #83 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Miami (OH) leads 17–13–1 · Miami (OH) has won 5 straight · 52% have been one-possession games
| CMU | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.4 (#85) | CORE overall | +1.1 (#57) |
| -3 / +2 | offense / defense | -1 / -3 |
| 1.62 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +8 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →