Indiana State vs. Ball State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Indiana State1-1
▸
Ball State1-1
Final
Scheumann Stadium
INDITeam statsBALL
361Total yards361
317Pass266
44Rush95
19First downs20
3-163rd down8-21
0Turnovers1
28:21Possession31:39
- Q4 3:50INDIKyani Harris 28 Yd pass from Mike Perish (Eric Heidorn Kick)27–20
- Q3 3:08BALLScott Secor 25 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q3 8:14BALLScott Secor 40 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 10:57INDIEric Heidorn 38 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 0:04INDIIsaac Beverstock 2 Yd pass from Mike Perish (Eric Heidorn Kick)17–14
- Q2 7:51INDIA.J. Johnson 25 Yd pass from Mike Perish (Eric Heidorn Kick)10–14
- Q2 9:31BALLJordan Hogue 23 Yd pass from Ozzie Mann (Scott Secor Kick)3–14
- Q1 8:46BALLJahwan Edwards 1 Yd Run (Scott Secor Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:15INDIEric Heidorn 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Market line
BALL −20
Against the number
INDI covered
line BALL −20
What the numbers say
- INDI played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BALL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.4
- INDI lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 38% success rate
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
BALL (top)INDI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BALL 0%
Closing line
BALL −20
Closing total
—
Model line
—
Actual result
INDI 27 – 20 BALL
consensus, liveBALL −20
Indiana State
- PassMike Perish 25/43, 317 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBuck Logan 15 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecGary Owens 7 REC, 107 YDS
Ball State
- PassOzzie Mann 24/46, 266 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJahwan Edwards 20 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeVonn Mabon 8 REC, 60 YDS
23.5sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
152
Points / snap
0.31
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
BALL win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Indiana State vs. Ball State?
Indiana State 27, Ball State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BALL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
INDI
BALL
38%
Success rate
43%
0.23
EPA / pass
0.16
0.12
EPA / rush
-0.03
41%
Early-down success
42%
44%
Pass success
40%
26%
Rush success
49%
14%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
5%
17%
Stuffed rush rate
26%
67%
Pass rate
58%
9.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.4
INDI
9.3 yards to go on 3rd down
69 scrimmage snaps
BALL
6.4 yards to go on 3rd down
83 scrimmage snaps
| INDI | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Total yards | 361 |
| 317 | Passing yards | 266 |
| 44 | Rushing yards | 95 |
| 19 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-16 | 3rd down | 8-21 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 25/43 | Comp/Att | 24/46 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-51 | Penalties | 5-58 |
| 28:21 | Possession | 31:39 |
INDI
10/12 with the model
−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
BALL
9/11 with the model
−1.9 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 7:51 BALL punt on 4th & 10 at INDI 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishINDI 5/14 scoring drives← own end zone →BALL 4/14 scoring drives
INDIFG10 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q1
BALLTD6 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q1
INDIPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
BALLPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 33Q1
INDIPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 24Q1
BALLPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 34Q1
INDIPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 30Q1
BALLTD14 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1
INDITD4 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
BALLPUNT9 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q2
INDIPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 2Q2
BALLPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· opp 40Q2
INDIPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 4Q2
INDITD6 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q2
BALLUncateg0 pl, 0 yds· own 27Q2
BALLPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 9Q3
INDIFG7 pl, 23 yds· opp 43Q3
BALLFG8 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q3
INDIPUNT4 pl, 23 yds· own 15Q3
BALLFG12 pl, 83 yds· own 10Q3
INDIPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 8Q3
BALLPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 31Q4
INDIMISS7 pl, 49 yds· own 36Q4
BALLPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 20Q4
INDITD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4
BALLPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 31Q4
INDIPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 15Q4
BALLEND12 pl, 49 yds· own 49Q4
- Q4 3:50INDIKyani Harris 28 Yd pass from Mike Perish (Eric Heidorn Kick)27–20
- Q3 3:08BALLScott Secor 25 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q3 8:14BALLScott Secor 40 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 10:57INDIEric Heidorn 38 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 0:04INDIIsaac Beverstock 2 Yd pass from Mike Perish (Eric Heidorn Kick)17–14
- Q2 7:51INDIA.J. Johnson 25 Yd pass from Mike Perish (Eric Heidorn Kick)10–14
- Q2 9:31BALLJordan Hogue 23 Yd pass from Ozzie Mann (Scott Secor Kick)3–14
- Q1 8:46BALLJahwan Edwards 1 Yd Run (Scott Secor Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:15INDIEric Heidorn 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesIndiana State were +20 — a 11% shot
#34 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #6 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →