Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsFIU
- Q4 1:58FIUAnthon Samuel 9 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)10–38
- Q4 8:23FIUAlex McGough 1 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)10–31
- Q3 3:39FIURichard Leonard 100 Yd Fumble Return (Austin Taylor Kick)10–24
- Q3 11:18FIUAustin Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 9:29FAUJay Warren 31 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)10–14
- Q2 11:35FIUAnthon Samuel 1 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)3–14
- Q1 7:50FIUAlex Gardner 24 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:28FAUGreg Joseph 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = FAU ahead, below = FIU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassJaquez Johnson 19/42, 225 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJaquez Johnson 10 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecLucky Whitehead 8 REC, 84 YDS
- PassAlex McGough 18/29, 160 YDS
- RushAlex Gardner 21 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJonnu Smith 7 REC, 62 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International?
Florida Atlantic 10, Florida International 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FAU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FAU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 345 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 160 |
| 158 | Rushing yards | 185 |
| 22 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/42 | Comp/Att | 18/29 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 8-51 |
| 28:05 | Possession | 31:55 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:58FIUAnthon Samuel 9 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)10–38
- Q4 8:23FIUAlex McGough 1 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)10–31
- Q3 3:39FIURichard Leonard 100 Yd Fumble Return (Austin Taylor Kick)10–24
- Q3 11:18FIUAustin Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 9:29FAUJay Warren 31 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)10–14
- Q2 11:35FIUAnthon Samuel 1 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)3–14
- Q1 7:50FIUAlex Gardner 24 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:28FAUGreg Joseph 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1134, FAU Elo 1345 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU +6 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 13 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #53 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Florida Atlantic leads 16–6 · 18% have been one-possession games
| FAU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | points / drive | 1.29 |
| 2.72 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 36% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →