Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CMUTeam statsNIU
- Q4 10:35CMUBrian Eavey 23 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q3 2:43NIUJuwan Brescacin 14 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Tyler Wedel Kick)31–17
- Q3 3:20CMUBen McCord 13 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brian Eavey Kick)31–10
- Q3 6:41NIUTyler Wedel 24 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 10:59CMUBrian Eavey 25 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 6:05CMUJesse Kroll 6 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brian Eavey Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:46CMUThomas Rawls 13 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:33CMUThomas Rawls 5 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:29NIUJuwan Brescacin 20 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Tyler Wedel Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCooper Rush 20/31, 269 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushThomas Rawls 40 CAR, 270 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJesse Kroll 6 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDrew Hare 18/33, 231 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushCameron Stingily 13 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecJuwan Brescacin 6 REC, 76 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCMU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:05CMU +24%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
- Q1 1:46CMU +20%
Thomas Rawls run for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
- Q1 8:33CMU +13%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
- Q1 13:29NIU +11%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 20 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)
- Q3 3:20CMU +11%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
- Q3 2:43NIU +11%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 14 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois?
Central Michigan 34, Northern Illinois 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CMU | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 552 | Total yards | 341 |
| 269 | Passing yards | 231 |
| 283 | Rushing yards | 110 |
| 30 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 20/31 | Comp/Att | 18/33 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 6.2 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-29 | Penalties | 3-34 |
| 38:43 | Possession | 20:44 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:35 CMU field goal on 4th & 1 at NIU 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.28 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:35CMUBrian Eavey 23 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q3 2:43NIUJuwan Brescacin 14 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Tyler Wedel Kick)31–17
- Q3 3:20CMUBen McCord 13 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brian Eavey Kick)31–10
- Q3 6:41NIUTyler Wedel 24 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 10:59CMUBrian Eavey 25 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 6:05CMUJesse Kroll 6 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brian Eavey Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:46CMUThomas Rawls 13 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:33CMUThomas Rawls 5 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:29NIUJuwan Brescacin 20 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Tyler Wedel Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NIU Elo 1519, CMU Elo 1295 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NIU -11.4 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#26 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #27 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Central Michigan leads 21–18 · 36% have been one-possession games
| CMU | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.29 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 28% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →