Maryland vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsWAKE
- Q4 7:46WAKEWAKE FOREST 38 yard field goal GOOD.10–34
- Q3 2:54WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.10–31
- Q3 2:54WAKEWAKE FOREST pass complete for a touchdown.10–31
- Q3 7:47MDMARYLAND Extra point GOOD.10–24
- Q3 7:47MDMARYLAND pass complete for a touchdown.9–24
- Q2 1:21WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.3–24
- Q2 1:21WAKEWAKE FOREST pass complete for a touchdown.3–23
- Q2 5:21WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.3–17
- Q2 5:21WAKEWAKE FOREST rush for a touchdown.3–16
- Q2 10:00MDMARYLAND 23 yard field goal GOOD.3–10
- Q1 0:00WAKEWAKE FOREST 51 yard field goal GOOD.0–10
- Q1 10:37WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 10:37WAKEWAKE FOREST rush for a touchdown.0–7
How the model called it
- PassCaleb Rowe 12/27, 207 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBrandon Ross 8 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecLevern Jacobs 3 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTanner Price 26/36, 231 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJosh Harris 9 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMichael Campanaro 11 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:21WAKE +17%
Tanner Price rush for 4 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 1:21WAKE +16%
Michael Campanaro pass complete to Tanner Price for 4 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:47MD +10%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 56 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 0:00WAKE +9%
Chad Hedlund 51 yard field goal GOOD
- Q2 10:00MD +8%
Brad Craddock 23 yard field goal GOOD
- Q3 2:54WAKE +6%
Tanner Price pass complete to Michael Campanaro for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. Wake Forest?
Maryland 10, Wake Forest 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MD | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 307 |
| 344 | Passing yards | 260 |
| 39 | Rushing yards | 47 |
| 22 | First downs | 16 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/51 | Comp/Att | 28/38 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 4-50 |
| 22:14 | Possession | 31:56 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:11 MD go for it on 4th & 10 at WAKE 15. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:46WAKEWAKE FOREST 38 yard field goal GOOD.10–34
- Q3 2:54WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.10–31
- Q3 2:54WAKEWAKE FOREST pass complete for a touchdown.10–31
- Q3 7:47MDMARYLAND Extra point GOOD.10–24
- Q3 7:47MDMARYLAND pass complete for a touchdown.9–24
- Q2 1:21WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.3–24
- Q2 1:21WAKEWAKE FOREST pass complete for a touchdown.3–23
- Q2 5:21WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.3–17
- Q2 5:21WAKEWAKE FOREST rush for a touchdown.3–16
- Q2 10:00MDMARYLAND 23 yard field goal GOOD.3–10
- Q1 0:00WAKEWAKE FOREST 51 yard field goal GOOD.0–10
- Q1 10:37WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 10:37WAKEWAKE FOREST rush for a touchdown.0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WAKE Elo 1295, MD Elo 1543 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WAKE +7.5 (32% to win) — 2.0 points clear of MD's market line of +5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #62 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Maryland leads 43–18–1 · 40% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →